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starleen
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Posted: Thu May 15th, 2008 04:37 am |
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Bambi wrote:
Received my weekly "foreclosure" list for the Valley. 1,416 compared to 1587 last week. Let's hope the reduction is a sign of the times and just not a "fluke". I'll keep tracking it.
I think a precursor to foreclosure numbers is short sales and preforeclosures. I don't have historical data but the website I use shows these numbers for Queen Creek (not the whole valley)
Foreclosures: 209
Short Sales: 521
Pre-Foreclosures: 36
I think it is telling that the number of short sales listed is twice the number of foreclosures, and the pre-foreclosures are a mere 36. Pre-foreclosure numbers were in the hundreds a few months ago.
I think owners in trouble and the holding lenders are wising up and opting for the short sale as a win-win situation (or least damage situation). The lender avoids costly foreclosure proceedings and time delays and the owner avoids the stigma of foreclosure on their credit history. However, the short sale still has tax liability issue for the seller (difference between sale price and loan owed is taxed as income or capital gain). But, lenders need to streamline the short sale process. Many of the short sales could fall into foreclosure due to lender beaurocracy.
http://search.foreclosurehomesearch.com/
password this week: 1942
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gk
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Posted: Wed May 14th, 2008 10:10 pm |
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Banks are in trouble due to one reason.
GREED. They pushed ARM's very heavily and invested in derivitives to the extreme. Seems that Banks are able to make what ever kind of stupid investment mistake possible and the fed just bails them out. Eletism at it's best.
Surely you do not advocate a change in our ecconomic system do you?
Absolutely. 100 % positively! Fiat money is only paper, the fed makes it from nothing. John Kennedy tried to reform our monetary system.......but he became a target.
THe system is corrupt!! There is nothing backing the US dollar, everyone is fleeing from it.
http://www.economymodels.com/money.asp
Last edited on Wed May 14th, 2008 10:21 pm by gk
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JJohnson
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Posted: Wed May 14th, 2008 09:50 pm |
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| You would be willling to risk the bad debt for a 1.5% spread? Good luck on getting the Fed to lend you that money based on your lousy business model. Professionally run banks are going broke with the 3.5% spread. How do you figure you are so much smarter than they are? My guess is that the markets in India are offering a bigger spread. It all comes down to the best use of the resources for stockholder returns. You are not entitled to a handout just because you are an American. If you are a higher risk or your potential ROI does not meet the model then you lose. Sorry to be so blunt but that is how business operates in a free market. Surely you do not advocate a change in our ecconomic system do you?
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anne.reed
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Posted: Wed May 14th, 2008 09:36 pm |
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Bambi wrote:
Well, it looks like the Feds have removed their bias that inflation was our greatest economic threat.....and have switched it to growth instead, where it's been all along. They missed their mark, once again, under crisis, which is what they were created for in the first place.
Now, like they did after the events of 9-11, start aggressively reducing those rates at each of your three remaining meetings this year. Now, that will present an opportunity for the Real Estate Market to rebound and recover from this downhill ride we're on.
Boy, that will take the wind out of the sales of all those soothsayers out there that were trying to predict the outcome of this crunch we're in. You just don't know and to predict is to guess. Hang in there till the market gets better? Well, hopefully, it's on it's way. Those home prices will start rising again, as that reduction in rates, will trigger a wave of applications, and will also send a signal to the homebuilders, that with that lower rate, they can now pump more profit into their homes; supply and demand will govern that move, not the Feds. Now, that's history talking, not a crystal ball.
It's still Showtime.
CNN reported that the banks (after the Fed bail-out) have no intention of wasting those cheap dollars on US consumers. They plan to invest the bulk of that low-rate money in India and China, emerging economies.
The Fed (our tax dollars hard at work) is lending banks money at an all time low. Just how much profit do the corporations need to make? At prime-plus, the historical marker for interest rates we should be getting loans at way cheaper than 5.5%, more like 3.5%. Just another ploy to take from the middle class and give to the emerging nations.
I wish I could borrow money at 2% and loan it at 5.5% for a yield of 275%. It looks like "global elitism" is moving forward at record pace.
AnneLast edited on Wed May 14th, 2008 09:37 pm by anne.reed
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed May 14th, 2008 12:19 am |
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| Received my weekly "foreclosure" list for the Valley. 1,416 compared to 1587 last week. Let's hope the reduction is a sign of the times and just not a "fluke". I'll keep tracking it.
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ajBookchin
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Posted: Fri Apr 25th, 2008 02:21 pm |
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Yes, the interest on a 40-year mortgage is greater, but it allows a homeowner to borrow a larger amount of money – buy a nicer home, larger home, home in a nicer area, etc – while keeping the monthly carrying costs smaller. It should be a trade-off.
Unfortunately, too many Americans do not want a trade-off, they want things how they want them… they want the low monthly payments and the nicer home, larger home, home in a nicer area…
I didn’t opt for the standard 30 because “everyone else” does, I chose that loan because it was obvious when I purchased my home (Oct ’05) that interest rates were likely to begin increasing. (Some days I’m frustrated with myself for purchasing a home at that time. I could see the warning signs, but was then willing to accept a small (10%) decline in values over the near term as I expected to remain in the house for a while. The decline in values we are actually experiencing are far worse than I anticipated. My only consolation is that I am not down in the Hunt Highway area – I expect that area may suffer longer due to the increasing transportation costs and new development to occur immediately off the US60 within Lost Dutchman Heights.)
As for risks, IRAs are not quite the same as this mortgage crisis – should we make bad fund selections and our investments see poor returns, we will suffer the consequences without a government bail-out. That is true risk. What risk is involved, if when you make a bad decision, someone is there to rescue you from the consequences of your bad choices??? What will prevent you from making additional bad choices in the future???
We must allow people to fail as a consequence of their choices.
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Bambi
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Posted: Thu Apr 24th, 2008 02:23 pm |
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Bookchin. I'd like to discuss these real estate questions with you on my site if you would come over and register.
There are or were 40 year mortgages out there. Very few chose them, because the payoff is way too much. Ten years more worth of interest equates to alot of money....so the principal is reducing less than a 30 year. Most people don't think about owning a home longer that 5 years in this day and age, so they opt for the 5 year arms or the 30 year fixed. ....psychology at work in their own minds, each at a different level of thinking and figuring things out. Most just opt for the "standard" 30 year, as that's what everyone else does, so guess I will too.
It's all about risks. Sames goes with peoples IRA money. Earn 15% with market risks, or a safe standard 5% with no market risks. They decide.
But we are paying for the other guys loss and will continue to do so, as we have done in the past.
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ajBookchin
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Posted: Thu Apr 24th, 2008 05:12 am |
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pipeman wrote: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/business/20fannie.html?ref=business
I found this to be refreshing news. Hopefully this will help and bring housing back on track.
How is it refreshing news that these two "private" companies are now allowed to invest a greater share of their assets into risky investments prone to failure and that when they fail, it will be the taxpayers bailing them out???
I'm sorry, but the government needs to get out of the way and allow the market to correct without interference. It is entirely unfair to us who make responsible choices - what am I teaching my children...
If you are responsible you will have your family of five live in the small house, but if you take risks and are irresponsible, you can buy the big house and hope the government (the responsible citizens) will help you keep your big house when reality catches up with you.
I end up "looking" like the stupid adult - I'm left with the small house while helping the other guy keep his big house.
There are solutions that would not require government intervention but be a win-win for both sides - how about longer mortgage terms???
Last edited on Thu Apr 24th, 2008 05:13 am by ajBookchin
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Apr 23rd, 2008 04:28 pm |
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Well, just a bit of news for our rural area's climb out of a state of depressed prices.
The 3.5 acre piece, with water, just 2 lots down from me, is in escrow for $400,000. A home two lots east of me, is under construction. It will be 7800 sq. ft., with 14 children under roof. He is bringing the waterline down to his home, as he is the one that had to go down 1600 ft. to reach water, and the Dept. of Water Resources advised him not to drill a well out here. He advised everyone not to drill. Surprise Surprise....wonder if Georgie boy has anything to do with this?
Anyway, that is good news. Now all we have to do is close that escrow, record that price, and we have a "new" baseline" to start at. We have been asking $189,000. for the same size lot, only out back in units 7, and not one bite. Now $400k cash? The Gates are beginning to open again.
I'm leaving this on here, as I probably won't be posting real estate news on here anymore, since I have the http://www.oursantanfoothills.org site. I just have to duplicate what I write, and I'm getting too old for duplication efforts.
See ya Saturday.
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pipeman
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Posted: Thu Mar 20th, 2008 03:45 am |
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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/business/20fannie.html?ref=business
I found this to be refreshing news. Hopefully this will help and bring housing back on track.
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Mar 19th, 2008 12:49 am |
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I just thought I'd tell you that my "real estate phone lines" have started ringing more often...with buyers and sellers. A good sign, in spite of all the negative signs. Now most of these buyer calls are for "deals" out here, meaning foreclosures and short sales and some new homes, if they can get their per sq. ft. price down low enough to compete with the foreclosure market. The resident resale market also competes with the foreclusures and short sales, so they are still having difficulty too. Time....just hang in there.
This will be a slow upturn for everyone, until the foreclosure market is pretty well exhausted. But buyers shouldn't feel guilty making these foreclosure purchases. This is a good opportunity to acquire a huge amount of equity, which translates into dollars, in a short time. Think of it as putting money in the bank...when you choose to sell in a good market, your money has earned a lot of interest in the meantime, and your end up receiving a treasure in funds......this is America. The land of Opportunity. Own real estate.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Mon Mar 17th, 2008 05:28 pm |
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Wall Street employee owners shudder as Bear Stearns implodes
By Daisy Maxey
Last update: 12:44 p.m. EDT March 17, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- On Wall Street, employees are suddenly worried about their stakes in their employers' stock. The reason, or course, is the dramatic plunge in Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC: 3.90, -26.10, -87.0%) stock. Employees at the firm are now worried not only about their jobs, but they're also helplessly watching their company stock holdings plummet. Bear Stearns, which employs 14,000, is about one-third owned by its staff. JPMorgan & Chase & Co. (JPM: 39.75, +3.21, +8.8%) is paying just $2 a share for the 85-year-old investment bank, the fifth-biggest in the U.S., to rescue it from a severe cash crunch. That's a far cry from where the shares were just weeks ago. Bear's shares closed at $30 on Friday, and traded above $100 as recently as December.
According to Financial News, staff at Bear Stearns have lost more than $5.2 billion on their holdings in the company. The sale price is 98.7% below where the shares were trading as recently as April last year. The obvious parallel is with the collapse of Enron, the energy trading giant that entered bankruptcy proceedings in December 2001 with accounting problems and billions in debt. In addition to thousands of jobs, more than $2 billion in pensions were wiped out. "It's Enron all over again," said Don Delves, president of the Delves Group, a Chicago-based executive compensation consulting firm. "Enron had the same problem; everyone was locked up in their stock." Now employees all over Wall Street are wondering about the wisdom of owning large chunks of their own companies' stock. Employee stock ownership is also high at Lehman Brothers (LEH: 25.82, -13.44, -34.2%) , at about 30%, according to the company's web site. Lehman, one of the very few independent investment banking firms like Bear, has sought to reassure investors that it has sufficient liquidity. The stock was down about 15% in morning trading. And at many larger Wall Street firms, employees often have large holdings of stock through bonuses, 401(k) plans and options.
At Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER: 38.97, -4.54, -10.4%) , employees own 26% of the company's stock, according to 2006 data on the company's website. The data include options not yet vested. A financial advisor at Merrill said, "I'm nervous." Depending on production, Merrill advisors are awarded a percentage of stock that vests after five years. A little before 9 a.m. EDT Monday, the southeast regional director of wealth management at the firm sent a note to financial advisors, saying the firm's "capital position is sound," and that, as when E.F. Hutton and Drexel Burnham Lambert collapsed in the past, the swift decline of Bear could signal a turning point.
Of Bear Stearns employees, the advisor said, "We feel their pain, literally, because we're going through it. This is uncharted water for all of us. We'll see, probably, the real test of patience and nerves."
One Citigroup Inc. (C: 18.35, -1.43, -7.2%) executive, who receives deferred stock as part of his bonus, said, "I've heard people saying they have nothing but Citi in their 401k. That is the classic mistake." And a veteran Citi broker said, "Don't limit your investments to your company stock. That's standard advice to our clients," and now "the same advice we give to ourselves." Time and again, company collapses show the perils of employee ownership of huge chunks of company stock. At Lucent, the telecom giant matched employee contributions to its 401(k) plan with company stock, and employees often invested in the stock in their 401(k) plan. They suffered in the telecom crash; the company later merged, becoming Alcatel-Lucent (ALU:5.12, -0.14, -2.7%).
Of course, employee stock ownership goes much broader than Wall Street. In 2007, 11.2 million Americans held $928 billion in employee stock option plans, stock bonus plans and profit-sharing plans that primarily invest in company stock. That was up from 2006 when 10.5 million plan participants held $675 billion in similar plans, according to the National Center For Employee Ownership in Oakland, Calif. According to Hewitt Associates, a third of workers don't have company stock in their 401(k) plans, but almost 40% have at least 20%, and 16% have more than 50% balance in company stock.
Lower paid managers might receive 10% of their compensation in stock, while the highest paid executives might receive 45% or 50% of their pay in company stock, said Alan Johnson, managing director, Johnson Associates Inc., a compensation consulting firm. It can range from 15% to 80% or even 90%. The stock vests over time, typically three to four years.
"There's tremendous pride in ownership," said Johnson. While financial advisors might recommend against owning so much company stock, "Fear can be a great motivator," he said. "If you're worried about returns then you'll be extra careful."
Pearl Meyer, a senior managing director at executive compensation consulting firm Steven Hall & Partners in New York, said the culture at Bear Stearns was more like "a Goldman Sachs culture" than that of a publicly owned firm. "While they were public, they had a partnership culture," and the culture encouraged heavy employee ownership in the stock, he said.
At Bear Stearns, employees were barred from trading shares they hold in the company recently because of long-standing "lockups" weeks prior to the company's earnings announcements. (Jilian Mincer and Kristen McNamara contributed to this story.)
-Contact: 201-938-5400
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Bambi
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Posted: Mon Mar 10th, 2008 06:58 pm |
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Here's your market. Here's your reason people can't sell their homes....or buyers are ignoring their homes.
Char just went to show a home that requires a short sale. There are 7 other offers in front of her. The lenders are eating this up. Kind of a reverse of 2005.
Now try to go and borrow for a regular home sale......tough requirements....making it more difficult than ever. who wants to buy a regular home at the "normal" market price when they can "steal" one from the foreclosures and short sales market, which is much lower and more enticing?
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anne.reed
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Posted: Sat Mar 8th, 2008 04:11 pm |
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Many would disagree:
http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2008-03-07_Anatomyofahedgefundcollapse.html
LAST UPDATED: MARCH 7, 2008: 7:50 AM
Anatomy of a hedge fund collapse
When big banks have multibillion-dollar holes on their balance sheets, they make harsh margin calls even to their healthier clients. Here's how one fund got crunched by the credit crisis.
By Roddy Boyd, writer
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- In this market, even when a hedge fund is doing well, the wolf can be right outside the front door.
Exhibit A: The recent collapse of the $150 million Tequesta Mortgage fund. Like much larger and higher-profile rivals that have imploded in recent weeks, Tequesta collapsed when it couldn't meet demands for more collateral from its prime broker - in Tequesta's case, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500).
Unlike other hedge funds that cratered from bad housing-related bets, Tequesta steered clear of the mortgage- and asset-backed credit markets now getting walloped by the real estate bust. In fact, Tequesta's investment strategy of avoiding credit risk was paying off, according to bond salesmen and rival fund managers who bought the Tequesta positions seized by Citigroup.
What's more, unlike many managers of now-defunct hedge funds, Tequesta general partner Ivan Ross specialized in mortgage-related investing and had successfully navigated ugly mortgage-market crises in 1994 and in 1998.
The cause of the Tequesta fund's death: The balance sheet problems of the commercial and investment banks that dominate Wall Street's bond trading. Its untimely demise offers a case study in how the credit squeeze is forcing big players like Citigroup to pull lines of credit from otherwise healthy investors.
Granted, Tequesta wasn't a knockout in the hedge fund world, where stratospheric returns were the norm in recent years. The fund's returns were steady, if unspectacular, according to Hedgefund.net: 8.82% in 2003, 7.9% in 2004, 2.92% in 2005 and 8.74% in 2006.
The bonds seemed safe
The Tequesta fund traded in bonds carved from so-called prime jumbo mortgage loans. These are loans made to higher net-worth borrowers, generally in the amounts of $500,000 or more, who tend to have better credit. Tequesta's portfolio of triple-A loans continued to have low levels of default and delinquency as of earlier this year, according to a Fortune review of fund marketing materials and letters to investors.
In short, the prime jumbo mortgage bond market proved to be the exact opposite of the collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market, where billions of dollars worth of bonds were found to have been backed by problematic collateral. But when the market for triple-A rated bonds evaporated in recent months, so did the market for Tequesta's holdings of otherwise stable jumbo mortgage investments.
Tequesta was known for avoiding the use of credit to increase the size and risk of its investments; indeed, it had to work hard to convince investors that its aversion to credit risk - Ross had written to investors as early as 2005 that he saw major problems with the credit cycle - would not preclude handsome returns. The fund was also known to be scrupulous in its hedging practices, in order to guard against declines in the prices of its bonds.
Investors clamored for a more aggressive approach. "They were facing investor questions in early 2007 because [Tequesta's] hedges left too much carry on the table," said a bond salesman who covered the fund. By "carry," the salesman is referring to the difference between what a hedge fund receives in bond interest and what it pays to its prime broker to finance the position.
Last year, Ross yielded and opened another fund that used slightly more leverage - but only, he told Fortune, to two times capital, which is sharply below the industry average. The move pleased some of the fund's investors who quickly shifted their investments to the new portfolio.
Markets dry up
His timing couldn't have been worse. In July and August of last year, and then again in October and November, the secondary market for jumbo mortgage bonds came to a standstill. At the same time, Tequesta's primary brokers - including Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), Citigroup, Credit Suisse (CS) and UBS (UBS) - were grappling with balance sheets loaded with billions of dollars worth of subprime mortgages, CDOs and other fixed-income derivatives and loans.
This, in turn, created problems for smaller, less-liquid markets. Jumbo mortgage bonds, for instance, saw valuations drop as dealers and rival mortgage hedge funds refused to indicate at what price they would be willing to buy this paper. Lacking bidders, Tequesta's bonds fell in value.
So began a vicious cycle.
Tequesta's portfolio managers watched on the sidelines as banks dumped billions of dollars worth of mortgage bonds to free up capital. Even bonds backed by loans to the wealthiest Americans traded lower.
This raised alarms among Tequesta's lenders. Executives at investment-bank prime brokerage operations saw the sharp drop in the value of Tequesta's holdings and demanded additional collateral. In turn, they forced the fund to make additional sales to meet the margin calls.
Last year, after months of grappling with - and meeting - margin calls, the Tequesta fund posted a 19.63% decline. Though alarming, Ross and his colleagues soldiered on, reckoning that the historically low valuations of their portfolio - "money good" triple-A securities that were now offering unprecedented yields well into the double-digits - would be irresistible to investors.
They were wrong. In February, according to a Tequesta executive, trading in the jumbo mortgage markets virtually stopped. Prompted by massive trades in other mortgage bond markets that forced bond prices to historical lows, the margin calls from its trading counter-parties and its prime-broker Citigroup, all of whom were coping with their own balance sheet problems - started around the third week of the month.
Making matters worse: Unlike other lenders making margin calls, Citigroup was willing to liquidate inventory below loan values - the value it had assigned the bond when they initially provided the fund its margin - and recognize losses just to get the bonds off its books. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined comment.
In one case, Citigroup seized collateral from Tequesta and put it up for sale in a bid-list auction. According to a trader at another firm, however, Citigroup's mortgage trading desk offered to sell Tequesta's bonds to regional brokerage firms at prices even lower than listed prices. In another instance, Tequesta's portfolio managers were told by Citigroup rivals that its seized bonds had been offered to other hedge funds for more than $25 below where they had been trading in the previous days.
Under that kind of pressure, Tequesta decided by early March that they'd have to shut the mortgage fund down. Tequesta, according to a firm executive, still has several portfolios open. Ross declined comment to Fortune.com on his future plans. But as long as the credit markets remain in their current miserable state, there are going to be more stories like Tequesta's.
FIRST PUBLISHED: MARCH 7, 2008: 4:21 AM EST
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Bambi
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Posted: Fri Mar 7th, 2008 11:38 pm |
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Different perspectives........This one says that "now" is the perfect entry point.
http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1713483,00.html#
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Bambi
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Posted: Thu Mar 6th, 2008 04:54 pm |
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Todays Updates from a Lender.....
Rates have taken a sharp increase during the past week. Most everything is up a 1/2%.
For the past week, the banks have had a huge liquidity problem and are selling off their mortgage bonds in order to bring in badly needed cash. In doing so the supply of mortgage bonds has greatly increased v.s. the demand for them. When supply of anything is much greater than the demand, buyers expect a good deal.
Thus the mortgage bond buyers are getting higher yields and our interest rates are therefore higher too. Hopefully the Mortgage Bond oversupply situation won't last too long.
Another thing you should know about is the situation with stated loans. Basically the "stated loan" is starting to go away. I still have some lenders that will do a "stated" loan, but don't expect that to last too long.
Buyers: Get your paperwork in order and be ready for full doc loans in the very near future.
a 30 year fixed rate loan is now 6.3%. A 5 yr. fixed arm is 5.7%.
People are going to have to get creative to move their properties....I have a seller who will sell his property on a 75/15/10. That means a 75% loan, based on the seller carrying 15%, leaving the buyer to come in with only 10%. That's creative.
One more thing...homeowner equity is the lowest it's been since 1945.
Last edited on Thu Mar 6th, 2008 05:12 pm by Bambi
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Bambi
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Posted: Thu Mar 6th, 2008 01:51 pm |
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Many of them knew....the title officer quite often explains those risks at closing. They decided to take those risk, in hopes of the market continuing on it's same path. Or if they didn't understand the risks, they knew they couldn't afford an attorney, so they pursued as if they knew.
It was a risk taking market, felt by all, which kept escalating till it was spinning out of control with the constant rise in pricing....then it quit spinning at a dead stop. One day the phones were ringing....the next day no phones ringing.
Just hang in there....when the people's confidence begins to rise, so shall the economy.
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pipeman
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Posted: Thu Mar 6th, 2008 03:12 am |
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| I heard on KTAR today that we now have more home foreclosures than we have homes sold. That in itself, is really sad. People can lay blame on preditory lenders, but I say lay the blame where it belongs....... on the people who purchased something they couldn;t afford. It is always suggested to have a lawyer go over all the paperwork before signing anything, these people failed to do it, now they are suffering due to their lack of protecting themselves. It still is a sad situation.
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 10:12 pm |
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Here's some good information from ARMLS...MLS. Just keep referring to it for your updates and explore the site as a consumer. Good credible information to track what's happening to us. The graph is great. Just keep your eye on the ball, and when it begins to rise, you know we must have hit bottom...finally.
These are the solds.
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/SoldChartJan08.pdf
Here's the chart for the listings.
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/ListChartJan08.pdf
And here's the ARMLS Economic and Market Watch Report. It covers Maricopa and Pinal Counties, including forecasts.
If you read that Report and look at those charts, you will probably know and understand more than most realtors and consumers do. It's a wealth of information based on factual data collected by the Association.
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/4q07NarReport.pdf
Read and gather insight, which translates into understanding.
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JJohnson
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 09:50 pm |
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Bravo wrote: The price of gas is having an effect on home sales out here. I just read an article on how people are not willing to drive anymore to the outlying areas even if it means more house for the money. This was in the Real Estate section of the AZ republic. These families can now find deals on homes in Chandler and Gilbert that are very appealing. They stated that they are willing to settle for a smaller home and not have to put up with the traffic and the high price of gasoling that goes with it.
Like I stated before ... THAT IS A STRETCH to justify the posting in this topic.
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Bravo
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 09:46 pm |
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| The price of gas is having an effect on home sales out here. I just read an article on how people are not willing to drive anymore to the outlying areas even if it means more house for the money. This was in the Real Estate section of the AZ republic. These families can now find deals on homes in Chandler and Gilbert that are very appealing. They stated that they are willing to settle for a smaller home and not have to put up with the traffic and the high price of gasoling that goes with it.
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gk
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 07:13 pm |
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Have no beef with Bambi at all.
sorry webmaster jj. with your permission I will leave this thread now....please?
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JJohnson
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 06:54 pm |
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| That is a huge stretch .... I for one like this topic as it gives insightful anf professional information. You and I are not experts in this field and stand to learn from it. Please keep things on topic and not hijacked. I am not sure what your beef and personal vendetta is against Bambi. Listen to her ... You may actually learn something
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gk
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 06:51 pm |
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| just for you jj.................the price of gas, the price of food, the loan defaults and the falling of the dollar ALL affect the real estate and mortgage sector
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JJohnson
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 06:30 pm |
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gk wrote: GORDA, Calif.- If you're going to be heading down the Big Sur Coastline anytime soon, you'll probably going to want to have a full tank before you leave with the price of crude oil skyrocketing. With gasoline following the same direction, the Americo gas station in Gorda, just south of Big Sur is selling premium unleaded gas for $5.39 a gallon. If you can do without premium regular's a relative bargain at $5.19.
Prices in many Bay Area cities remain above the statewide average with the price for a gallon of gas in Oakland at $3.51; San Francisco, $3.64; Salinas, $3.56; San Jose, $3.52; and Santa Cruz, $3.51. The average price for a gallon of gas in Santa Rosa sits just under the statewide average at $3.49 and in Vallejo a gallon is averaging $3.47, according to AAA.
What does this have to do with "Real Estate and Mortgage Update"?
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 06:27 pm |
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| Where's that doggone car from India? I want one of those.
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gk
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 06:17 pm |
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GORDA, Calif.- If you're going to be heading down the Big Sur Coastline anytime soon, you'll probably going to want to have a full tank before you leave with the price of crude oil skyrocketing. With gasoline following the same direction, the Americo gas station in Gorda, just south of Big Sur is selling premium unleaded gas for $5.39 a gallon. If you can do without premium regular's a relative bargain at $5.19.
Prices in many Bay Area cities remain above the statewide average with the price for a gallon of gas in Oakland at $3.51; San Francisco, $3.64; Salinas, $3.56; San Jose, $3.52; and Santa Cruz, $3.51. The average price for a gallon of gas in Santa Rosa sits just under the statewide average at $3.49 and in Vallejo a gallon is averaging $3.47, according to AAA.
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pipeman
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 06:04 pm |
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| well at least two partment buildings sold in the West Valley for a lot of money. One sold for 43 mil (a company from Oregon or Washington) and the other for 10 mil, or right there abouts.
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Mar 5th, 2008 05:06 pm |
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I can't write this again so I'll post the site from the QC forum.
http://www.newszapforums.com/view_topic.php?id=54757&forum_id=27&jump_to=267836
I will say that we finally had a closing in the SanTans on land inFeb. we meaning another realtor. A 5 acre site without water, for $300k. We were selling them in 05 for close to $600k.
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gk
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 05:55 pm |
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How bad is the economic outlook anyway?
Consider the following:
1.The Dow dropped 315 points Friday and it was the fourth straight month in decline.
2. The dollar vs. the Euro
3. Nearly 200,000 newly constructed single-family homes are sitting empty.
4. Consumer prices surged 4.1 percent last year, the most in 17 years.
5. Wholesale costs accelerated to 7.4 percent in January, the biggest jump since 1981.
6. Durable-goods orders for January plunged 5.3 percent and consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since February 1992.
7. claims for unemployment insurance climbed 19,000 last week
8. Buy groceries lately? Everything is higher and that is only the beginning
With all of the clear evidence that the economy is in a severe decline the lame stream media still fails to actually tell us how bad it really is. No wonder.......this is what the genius at the Fed (Wacky Bernanke) has to say about it ......"the US economy will return to a strong growth path with price stability."
and of course boy george hasn't a clue............President Bush said last Thursday, "I don't think we're headed to a recession,"
But other countries have no problem giving the facts
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview103.xml
Last edited on Tue Mar 4th, 2008 06:03 pm by gk
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anne.reed
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 01:02 pm |
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starleen wrote:
But l know several well qualified buyers who can't get a loan to save their lives.
Why can't they get a loan if they are qualified - because the property doesn't appraise for the value of the loan? Still lots of sellers in denial.
They haven't gotten a loan because many banks have effectively frozen their lending. Loan to Value ratio was under 70%, plenty of equity.
Regards,
Anne
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gk
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 04:30 am |
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some of those banks are starting to feel the beginnings of the derivitives market failing.
When that picks up speed it will destroy many. Derivitives are the absolutely dumbest investment that they could make.......but make it they did.......and it's really gona be ugly!
Why derivitives were allowed is beyond comprehension..........stupid.....stupid......stupid!!!!!!
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starleen
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 03:45 am |
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But l know several well qualified buyers who can't get a loan to save their lives.
Why can't they get a loan if they are qualified - because the property doesn't appraise for the value of the loan? Still lots of sellers in denial.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 03:13 am |
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CharWester wrote:
SAD! The numbers keep rising. Now who is buying the foreclosures or are they still sitting on the market? What are the sales stats? I don't seem to notice much of a rise in sales yet. I predict that we will start to see more sales SOON...they are creeping back up there ever so slowly. We have near record low interest rates right now.
But, we are DEFINATELY in a recession. So, the sooner we all admit that and accept it the sooner we can start to really move the economy...but, like anything, when you are in denial you can't fix the problem! So, what do we do? How do we convince people to feel good about buying?
The repos might sell if the banks would loan money. But O l know several well qualified buyers who can't get a loan to save their lives. If I was conspiracy conscious, I'd think this is all a ploy to get us to beg for the end of the dollar and the emergence of the long planned Amero. Sadly, this would also end the United States and unite the currencies of US, Canada and Mexico.
Only time will tell. But if this is the case, they'll make sure that corporations squeeze every last dollar from our properties, our savings, our 401ks, and marginalize the value of our paychecks before the plan is submitted.
Regards,
Anne
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anne.reed
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 03:05 am |
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bobthebuilder wrote:
Oil and gold relative to each other are pretty much the same price as they have been. The only reason they appear expensive to us is because the value of the dollar has dropped so much. Inflation is only a symptom of the real problem. Bambi isn't going to like this but the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates anymore. If anything, they're going to have to raise them at some point to counteract the drop of the dollar.
Dear Bob:
Perhaps the relative value of these commodities have remained constant, but, beyond that the differences abound. These commodities share a common link, the tanking value of the dollar. While it's been said that the US Treasury stopped using the "gold standard" some decades back, the truth is that gold is internationally liquid and so is oil. Large investors seek to secure their portfolios in commodities that are readily traded in the global markets, soy beans are also through the roof. Another greed based trend that further burdens the middle class American.
One thing that makes no sense to me is that with all the discounting being done by the fed (prime rates dropped by 50% since November) there is no pass thru to the consumer. This is just a giant bail-out for the banks and any benefit that might accrue to the citizens is incidental. So far, from what I can see rates have not dropped one iota. Government is in bed with big corporations, status quo, no news here. CEO's are taking record bonuses and these corps are reaping record profits and investing them abroad, yet, it is their interests that are protected by our elected officials. These are exempt from many taxes that you and I pay diligently. Our jobs, our security and our affluence are hot exports. Profit, profit, profit! I have heard some conservatives state that excellence should be rewarded. While I don't disagree with the statement, I do disagree that excellence is to be measured in dollars and cents without regard for social and moral considerations.
Let the banks take responsibility for their poor decisions. Let the banks be responsible for finding solutions to the problems they created. If they can't figure it out, let them take possession of all the homes their clients lost as a result of their unscrupulous practices and force them to hold them so the middle class that didn't buy into their stated loan and deferred interest programs are not also thrown under the bus! Let their balance sheets take the big hit for a change! They are fire saling properties at prices which will only drive down the net worth of sensible Americans, who weren't duped into their scheme. Some one should be held accountable for this greed motivated practice and the Congress should deny their request for a 700 billion dollar bail out. The government, our representatives, should insure that economic stimulus packages and bail outs are given to the victims not the predators. These modern day pirates should be walked from the plank just like Michael Milliken and Charles Keating. Do the crime, do the time!
Regards,
Anne
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bobthebuilder
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Posted: Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 11:56 pm |
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Oil and gold relative to each other are pretty much the same price as they have been. The only reason they appear expensive to us is because the value of the dollar has dropped so much. Inflation is only a symptom of the real problem. Bambi isn't going to like this but the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates anymore. If anything, they're going to have to raise them at some point to counteract the drop of the dollar.
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gk
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Posted: Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 01:28 am |
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LOOKING AT SOME COMMODITIES CHARTS I NOTICED THAT THE PRICE OF CRUDE IN EARLY 1999 WAS IN THE 12-14 DOLLAR RANGE
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/hist_CO.html
Thanks george, we're realling looking forward to $4.00 a gallon, you and your oil buds are really rakin it in.
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gsbill
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 06:27 pm |
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Oil is at record prices, food prices will continue to rise for the foreseable future, wheat shortages are critical, gold is skyrocketing, the bond markets are dead and agriculture is threatened by the bee die off and water shortages. and............
bush has completely destroyed the economy......totally and completely. How low can the prime rate go?
in my opinion it's gonna get a whole lot worse and be a long ugly road. Wages have not kept up with inflation, the real unemployment rate is much higher than the gubmit shows and the Fed is throwing cash at the problem, only making thigs worse.
gk..we may go rounds on some things.. but this nail you hit right on the head. Many people are very worried.
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gk
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 05:45 pm |
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it will be a long time I think.
Oil is at record prices, food prices will continue to rise for the foreseable future, wheat shortages are critical, gold is skyrocketing, the bond markets are dead and agriculture is threatened by the bee die off and water shortages. and............
bush has completely destroyed the economy......totally and completely. How low can the prime rate go?
in my opinion it's gonna get a whole lot worse and be a long ugly road. Wages have not kept up with inflation, the real unemployment rate is much higher than the gubmit shows and the Fed is throwing cash at the problem, only making thigs worse.
Wacky Bernanke has no clue what to do!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkUc0k2ePhk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIbjBOtWBHg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRTOvbrmlQk&feature=related
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CharWester
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 02:45 pm |
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SAD! The numbers keep rising. Now who is buying the foreclosures or are they still sitting on the market? What are the sales stats? I don't seem to notice much of a rise in sales yet. I predict that we will start to see more sales SOON...they are creeping back up there ever so slowly. We have near record low interest rates right now.
But, we are DEFINATELY in a recession. So, the sooner we all admit that and accept it the sooner we can start to really move the economy...but, like anything, when you are in denial you can't fix the problem! So, what do we do? How do we convince people to feel good about buying?
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SanTanEvents
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 06:00 am |
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Here are the Foreclosure Trends Since September '07.
These numbers represent the number of Pinal County residences that defaulted on their mortgages. Most of them defaulted totally and ended up in Foreclosure, some of them caught back up.
Sep. '07 - 538 Default
Oct. '07 - 592 Default
Nov. '07 - 619 Default
Dec. '07 - 637 Default
Jan. '08 - 819 Default
Feb. '08 - 781 Defaullt - Not sure if they are still recording for Feb. as it just ended.
We already have an abundance of bank owned property on inventory in the MLS. The banks have been driving pricing down to get rid of them. These Jan & Feb Defaults will more than likely enter our inventory May/June/July, with that many more of them coming I can only imagine how low prices will go.
Remember these numbers are for all of Pinal County, not just our area.
Bambi - Do you know when FHA will stop accepting Ameridream and the Nehemiah gifts? I heard it was April. Any other alternatives?
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pipeman
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 07:01 pm |
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| Oh them poor folks, I feel really sorry for them. I hope they are smart enough to tell Florence NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Florence need not come knocking on my door, cause it isn't going to happen here. Last edited on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 07:02 pm by pipeman
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Living in Arizona
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 03:32 pm |
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Just an FYI, Florence is looking into annexing part of Magic Ranch. This would be the portion that is on southwest side of Hunt along with an area on the north side which would include the golf club office . Basically it's the Lookout mountain area where the new Fry's is going to be. It is in the beginning stages and town officials have met with homeowners albeit only a small number showed up at the meeting.
Cc wrote: Bambi,
I just checked on-line and the lowest priced house by DR Horton in Magic Ranch is $116,900.00. Is another builder selling at the $105K price you mentioned?
Magic Ranch is in the Florence planning area. Maybe those folks see local control coming from Florence in the near future via annexation.
Anthem, which is inside the Florence city limits, seems to be putting up quite a few homes in the Parkside development. I know the taxes are much more in Anthem then they are in Magic Ranch.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 10:56 am |
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Dear Pipe and Bob:
Developers are often forced to forego profit in favor of cash flow. Usually the land they own is financed, adding interest cost for each day of hold. When faced with losing their investment, they are often forced to move inventory just to create cash flow, regardless of the profitablity.
In this market, the banks take the lion's share of the blame. There are many class action suits being brought against them for their predatory practices. They never have been in the property management business and have grown increasing arrogant in their disregard for their customers and quest for record profits. What they lose on "fire-sale" pricing for foreclosures they just make up in ridiculous fees for writing too many checks, writing too few checks, too many deposits or too few deposits, transfer fees, ATM fees, service charges and NSF charges.
Adding insult to injury they want their bottom line protected and have approached Congress demanding a huge bale out which will come back to consumers in the form of new taxes or decreased services.
I don't envy the position of the next president. He (she) will reap the full consequence of what some call the governments' bid to eliminate the dollar in favor of the Amero. (Currency associated with the North American Union, combining the Canadian Dollar, the US Dollar and the Peso.) Only time will tell whether this conspiracy theory will prove to be fact or fiction.
Regards,
Anne
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pipeman
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 02:51 am |
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bobthebuilder wrote: $55 per square foot seems awfully low to me too. My thought is th | | |