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starleen
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| Location: | Coolidge |
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 04:45 am |
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But l know several well qualified buyers who can't get a loan to save their lives.
Why can't they get a loan if they are qualified - because the property doesn't appraise for the value of the loan? Still lots of sellers in denial.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 04:13 am |
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CharWester wrote:
SAD! The numbers keep rising. Now who is buying the foreclosures or are they still sitting on the market? What are the sales stats? I don't seem to notice much of a rise in sales yet. I predict that we will start to see more sales SOON...they are creeping back up there ever so slowly. We have near record low interest rates right now.
But, we are DEFINATELY in a recession. So, the sooner we all admit that and accept it the sooner we can start to really move the economy...but, like anything, when you are in denial you can't fix the problem! So, what do we do? How do we convince people to feel good about buying?
The repos might sell if the banks would loan money. But O l know several well qualified buyers who can't get a loan to save their lives. If I was conspiracy conscious, I'd think this is all a ploy to get us to beg for the end of the dollar and the emergence of the long planned Amero. Sadly, this would also end the United States and unite the currencies of US, Canada and Mexico.
Only time will tell. But if this is the case, they'll make sure that corporations squeeze every last dollar from our properties, our savings, our 401ks, and marginalize the value of our paychecks before the plan is submitted.
Regards,
Anne
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anne.reed
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 04:05 am |
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bobthebuilder wrote:
Oil and gold relative to each other are pretty much the same price as they have been. The only reason they appear expensive to us is because the value of the dollar has dropped so much. Inflation is only a symptom of the real problem. Bambi isn't going to like this but the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates anymore. If anything, they're going to have to raise them at some point to counteract the drop of the dollar.
Dear Bob:
Perhaps the relative value of these commodities have remained constant, but, beyond that the differences abound. These commodities share a common link, the tanking value of the dollar. While it's been said that the US Treasury stopped using the "gold standard" some decades back, the truth is that gold is internationally liquid and so is oil. Large investors seek to secure their portfolios in commodities that are readily traded in the global markets, soy beans are also through the roof. Another greed based trend that further burdens the middle class American.
One thing that makes no sense to me is that with all the discounting being done by the fed (prime rates dropped by 50% since November) there is no pass thru to the consumer. This is just a giant bail-out for the banks and any benefit that might accrue to the citizens is incidental. So far, from what I can see rates have not dropped one iota. Government is in bed with big corporations, status quo, no news here. CEO's are taking record bonuses and these corps are reaping record profits and investing them abroad, yet, it is their interests that are protected by our elected officials. These are exempt from many taxes that you and I pay diligently. Our jobs, our security and our affluence are hot exports. Profit, profit, profit! I have heard some conservatives state that excellence should be rewarded. While I don't disagree with the statement, I do disagree that excellence is to be measured in dollars and cents without regard for social and moral considerations.
Let the banks take responsibility for their poor decisions. Let the banks be responsible for finding solutions to the problems they created. If they can't figure it out, let them take possession of all the homes their clients lost as a result of their unscrupulous practices and force them to hold them so the middle class that didn't buy into their stated loan and deferred interest programs are not also thrown under the bus! Let their balance sheets take the big hit for a change! They are fire saling properties at prices which will only drive down the net worth of sensible Americans, who weren't duped into their scheme. Some one should be held accountable for this greed motivated practice and the Congress should deny their request for a 700 billion dollar bail out. The government, our representatives, should insure that economic stimulus packages and bail outs are given to the victims not the predators. These modern day pirates should be walked from the plank just like Michael Milliken and Charles Keating. Do the crime, do the time!
Regards,
Anne
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bobthebuilder
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Posted: Tue Mar 4th, 2008 12:56 am |
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Oil and gold relative to each other are pretty much the same price as they have been. The only reason they appear expensive to us is because the value of the dollar has dropped so much. Inflation is only a symptom of the real problem. Bambi isn't going to like this but the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates anymore. If anything, they're going to have to raise them at some point to counteract the drop of the dollar.
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gk
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Posted: Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 02:28 am |
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LOOKING AT SOME COMMODITIES CHARTS I NOTICED THAT THE PRICE OF CRUDE IN EARLY 1999 WAS IN THE 12-14 DOLLAR RANGE
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/hist_CO.html
Thanks george, we're realling looking forward to $4.00 a gallon, you and your oil buds are really rakin it in.
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gsbill
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 07:27 pm |
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Oil is at record prices, food prices will continue to rise for the foreseable future, wheat shortages are critical, gold is skyrocketing, the bond markets are dead and agriculture is threatened by the bee die off and water shortages. and............
bush has completely destroyed the economy......totally and completely. How low can the prime rate go?
in my opinion it's gonna get a whole lot worse and be a long ugly road. Wages have not kept up with inflation, the real unemployment rate is much higher than the gubmit shows and the Fed is throwing cash at the problem, only making thigs worse.
gk..we may go rounds on some things.. but this nail you hit right on the head. Many people are very worried.
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gk
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 06:45 pm |
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it will be a long time I think.
Oil is at record prices, food prices will continue to rise for the foreseable future, wheat shortages are critical, gold is skyrocketing, the bond markets are dead and agriculture is threatened by the bee die off and water shortages. and............
bush has completely destroyed the economy......totally and completely. How low can the prime rate go?
in my opinion it's gonna get a whole lot worse and be a long ugly road. Wages have not kept up with inflation, the real unemployment rate is much higher than the gubmit shows and the Fed is throwing cash at the problem, only making thigs worse.
Wacky Bernanke has no clue what to do!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkUc0k2ePhk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIbjBOtWBHg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRTOvbrmlQk&feature=related
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CharWester
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 03:45 pm |
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SAD! The numbers keep rising. Now who is buying the foreclosures or are they still sitting on the market? What are the sales stats? I don't seem to notice much of a rise in sales yet. I predict that we will start to see more sales SOON...they are creeping back up there ever so slowly. We have near record low interest rates right now.
But, we are DEFINATELY in a recession. So, the sooner we all admit that and accept it the sooner we can start to really move the economy...but, like anything, when you are in denial you can't fix the problem! So, what do we do? How do we convince people to feel good about buying?
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SanTanEvents
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| Location: | San Tan Heights |
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Posted: Sun Mar 2nd, 2008 07:00 am |
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Here are the Foreclosure Trends Since September '07.
These numbers represent the number of Pinal County residences that defaulted on their mortgages. Most of them defaulted totally and ended up in Foreclosure, some of them caught back up.
Sep. '07 - 538 Default
Oct. '07 - 592 Default
Nov. '07 - 619 Default
Dec. '07 - 637 Default
Jan. '08 - 819 Default
Feb. '08 - 781 Defaullt - Not sure if they are still recording for Feb. as it just ended.
We already have an abundance of bank owned property on inventory in the MLS. The banks have been driving pricing down to get rid of them. These Jan & Feb Defaults will more than likely enter our inventory May/June/July, with that many more of them coming I can only imagine how low prices will go.
Remember these numbers are for all of Pinal County, not just our area.
Bambi - Do you know when FHA will stop accepting Ameridream and the Nehemiah gifts? I heard it was April. Any other alternatives?
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pipeman
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 08:01 pm |
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| Oh them poor folks, I feel really sorry for them. I hope they are smart enough to tell Florence NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Florence need not come knocking on my door, cause it isn't going to happen here. Last edited on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 08:02 pm by pipeman
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Living in Arizona
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 04:32 pm |
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Just an FYI, Florence is looking into annexing part of Magic Ranch. This would be the portion that is on southwest side of Hunt along with an area on the north side which would include the golf club office . Basically it's the Lookout mountain area where the new Fry's is going to be. It is in the beginning stages and town officials have met with homeowners albeit only a small number showed up at the meeting.
Cc wrote: Bambi,
I just checked on-line and the lowest priced house by DR Horton in Magic Ranch is $116,900.00. Is another builder selling at the $105K price you mentioned?
Magic Ranch is in the Florence planning area. Maybe those folks see local control coming from Florence in the near future via annexation.
Anthem, which is inside the Florence city limits, seems to be putting up quite a few homes in the Parkside development. I know the taxes are much more in Anthem then they are in Magic Ranch.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 11:56 am |
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Dear Pipe and Bob:
Developers are often forced to forego profit in favor of cash flow. Usually the land they own is financed, adding interest cost for each day of hold. When faced with losing their investment, they are often forced to move inventory just to create cash flow, regardless of the profitablity.
In this market, the banks take the lion's share of the blame. There are many class action suits being brought against them for their predatory practices. They never have been in the property management business and have grown increasing arrogant in their disregard for their customers and quest for record profits. What they lose on "fire-sale" pricing for foreclosures they just make up in ridiculous fees for writing too many checks, writing too few checks, too many deposits or too few deposits, transfer fees, ATM fees, service charges and NSF charges.
Adding insult to injury they want their bottom line protected and have approached Congress demanding a huge bale out which will come back to consumers in the form of new taxes or decreased services.
I don't envy the position of the next president. He (she) will reap the full consequence of what some call the governments' bid to eliminate the dollar in favor of the Amero. (Currency associated with the North American Union, combining the Canadian Dollar, the US Dollar and the Peso.) Only time will tell whether this conspiracy theory will prove to be fact or fiction.
Regards,
Anne
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pipeman
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 03:51 am |
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bobthebuilder wrote: $55 per square foot seems awfully low to me too. My thought is that the banks are panicking and offloading the properties when they should be sitting on them. I know our house prices were inflated but I have a really hard time imagining that there isn't a realistic floor to what the prices can go.
In the meantime, kudos to those who are lucky enough to buy a 1,400 sq foot house for so cheap. I can't see how this is going to last forever and I certainly don't see a house that size going for free so it has to stabilize sometime.
Personally I think the banks are stupid and deserve what they are getting. The problem to that is that I work at a bank right now that is laying people off lately. That makes me a little nervous.
Bob, I agree with you that there has to be a bottom limit a builder will go, which will still have a profit for them or else they would not do it. Although I did a system start-up at 107th ave and Happy Valley. The chlorination system was for future use for the homes that were going to be built out there. The day I trained the city operators on our system operations, I was told that the developer backed out of building the homes and was trying to sell the land. Originally my system was not going to be used to chlroinate the city water for 1.5 to 2 years. I am not sure now when they will be using the system. Their warranty will be run now before they use it. This all will end and many are saying that it will be faster than the predicted five years. Hs been said that it will pick up byend of 08, onlt time will tell I guess.
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bobthebuilder
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Posted: Fri Feb 29th, 2008 12:51 am |
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$55 per square foot seems awfully low to me too. My thought is that the banks are panicking and offloading the properties when they should be sitting on them. I know our house prices were inflated but I have a really hard time imagining that there isn't a realistic floor to what the prices can go.
In the meantime, kudos to those who are lucky enough to buy a 1,400 sq foot house for so cheap. I can't see how this is going to last forever and I certainly don't see a house that size going for free so it has to stabilize sometime.
Personally I think the banks are stupid and deserve what they are getting. The problem to that is that I work at a bank right now that is laying people off lately. That makes me a little nervous.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 06:15 pm |
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Dear Bob:
I don't know current costs but I do know that in 1987 offsite and onsite (engineering, financing, sales costs, transfer costs, water, roads, sewer, grading, building, and more) costs for residential real estate on an average sized lot) ran about $75 per square foot and sales prices ran about $100. Custom home costs ran about $100 per square foot and sold for 25-50% more than costs.
There are a lot of variables in computing costs, Today, the lots are smaller, the labor is cheaper but the building materials have gone thru the roof. Most sites are not willing to disclose current costs without purchasing a membership, but this article gives a ballpark estimate.
http://www.home-cost.com/template.php?sectionID=10&pageID=44
I'd love to hear what the actual costs are, but, it's my guess that $55 per square foot is well below cost.
Regards,
Anne
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anne.reed
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 05:47 pm |
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Yes, commercial and industrial real estate is currently viewed as a safe haven for dollars that fear the worst in the equities and bonds market. If you want to be sick, check out what's going on in commodities.
http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/
Regards,
Anne
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StanTheMan
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 05:22 pm |
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Bambi wrote: cc wrote: Bambi,
I just checked on-line and the lowest priced house by DR Horton in Magic Ranch is $116,900.00. Is another builder selling at the $105K price you mentioned?
Magic Ranch is in the Florence planning area. Maybe those folks see local control coming from Florence in the near future via annexation.
Anthem, which is inside the Florence city limits, seems to be putting up quite a few homes in the Parkside development. I know the taxes are much more in Anthem then they are in Magic Ranch.
It's DR Horton and it will be in Magic Ranch. They just have not released them yet. He's just giving us a heads-up, since our office is so close to them. If you are interested in pursuing this, give me a call or email, and I'll get you first in line. They have already built those models elsewhere. We are going to meet with them again tomorrow and find out where those models are.
Anthem is doing fantastic and the majority of the residents love it there. Taxes higher indeed, but it was all on the Public Report, even the fact the buyer is helping pay for the infrastructure in front of the subdivision, when normally, that is paid by the developer (the developer normally just pencils that into the cost of the home anyway, so you pay for it once when you buy the home, and again on your assessments...just coming from days gone by). Full disclosure on the part of Pulte. These people have bought into a lifestyle, not just a home. And, they don't mind being a part of Florence at all. In fact, most like it. Besides, they'll have their little mini city out there in Anthem before you know it. Florence moves fast and is prepared for the challenges facing them, and is hungry for the sales tax revenue.
Which leads me into this; You won't believe all the activity going on in the commercial and industrial market. Not like homes at t'all.....people are making hot purchases, and they have hot green cash to accomplish that feat. It's selling at $7 to $10. dollars a sq.ft. now, and that's very good for out this way, north to the 60. We've got Home Depots sending in LOI's (letters of intent) all over the place. Little guys; big guys; all getting ready for the population explosion out here in the very near future. All i can say is we better be ready.
once these guys start moving dirt on their commercial and industrial land they're purchasing, let's say by the time they get their A and D loans, probably next year; well that creates interest from everyone for everything, insiders, outsiders, doesn't matter; the word gets out and we're back on the fast track again........so we best be prepared as we're not equipped to handle it presently....we still have to create the Village and build the "flood gates."
When I went to look, before I purchased my home so it was about 2 months ago, they showed that they were one price but then they offered almost $40k in insentives to buy...which discounted the home greatly and brought the price down to some were below $100k. I saw a sign in Copper Basin the other day that stated the homes were starting in the 80's...I think it too was DR Horton.
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StanTheMan
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 05:18 pm |
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anne.reed wrote: StanTheMan wrote:
Isn't Johnson Ranch in the Queen Creek area? I just purchased a foreclosure home...1400 sq.ft. for $89k. It's a great little home! Things are tough all over. I think that wherever you have a dominance of starter homes you will have a problem with foreclosures, especially in a market like this. But, many can benefit from this market!
Yes, Stan, Johnson Ranch is in Queen Creek but not within the city limits. In fact, we are not even in the same county as Town of Queen Creek.
You are absolutely right, things are tough all over. However, I don't think the problem will be limited to the starter home market. I think this devaluation will continue through all price points within the market as it is a function of two factors:
1) Banks loaned money to speculators, first time buyers and everyone inbetween, without regard for their ability to repay the debt.
2) American consumers stopped living within their means, but began living on their inflationary profits from the housing boom.
I am pleased for your good fortune and welcome you to the community. But, $63.00 per square foot (89000/1400) is a pretty shocking price decline. Many residents have existing mortgages over $120.00 per square foot. What that means is to sell their homes they would need to pony up about $90,000 in the case of a 1400 square foot home. The fact that you purchased this home as a bank repo, creates further pressure on developers and builders to "fire sale" their inventories, lay-off workers, and do whatever they must to remain in business. Each of these factors fuel the downward pressure on real estate markets and the US economy, Meaning, the trend will probably get a lot worse before it gets better.
Regards,
Anne
hence the big amount of foreclosures. I just think that a large part of the foreclosure market is a result of first time home buyers being offered a "too good to be true" option with the adjustable rate mortgage. Once the rate adjusted it became unaffordable. In an ideal situation we would have continued to "appreciate" rather than depreciate. At the time of the adjustment consumers could have either refinanced their homes or sold them as they would have been in an equitable position. However, the down turn of the market changed everything! So, good buyers became renters and lost their homes and continue to lose their homes. When I was home shopping I looked at homes in Copper Basin for $55 per sq.ft. Wow. Just a little too far for me and it was a very basic home too. Mine has granite counter tops and upgraded flooring (though I had to replace the carpet-pet odors were lingering)
As for identifying with a town, my mailing address states Queen Creek, therefore I state that I live in the unincorporated Queen Creek. Sounds okay to me?
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bobthebuilder
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 04:49 pm |
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Stupid question, but how much does it actually cost to build a new 1,400 square foot home? Can the housing prices realistically stay below that amount for long? It would seem to me that it would cost a bit more than $89,000 to build a new house outright.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 03:40 pm |
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http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/02/26/how-big-will-the-bank-bailout-get.aspx
How Big Will the Bank Bailout Get?
By Christopher Barker February 26, 2008
Judging by Monday's gains in shares of most big banks, investors must have missed a certain New York Times article over the weekend.
The piece cited a confidential Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) bailout proposal the bank presented to members of Congress. In its plea for help from the federal government, the Times reported, the document "warns that up to $739 billion in mortgages are at 'moderate to high risk' of defaulting over the next five years and that millions of families could lose their homes."
$739 billion? With a "b"? Numbers this huge demand a moment to pause for reflection. Total losses to date from this crisis throughout the global finance sector amount to $200 billion. Apparently, Bank of America not only foresees that total rising by 370%, but also warns that the trouble may drag on for half a decade. The sum is nearly five times the $150 billion total of the fiscal stimulus package that Congress approved earlier this month, representing nearly 5% of U.S. GDP.
What does this mean for Bank of America?
If Bank of America has adopted forecasts that quantify the potential cumulative industrywide losses from the mortgage crisis, has the bank conveyed its projected portion of those losses to shareholders within the company's recent earnings report?
Bank of America's 2007 annual report revealed $8.18 billion in remaining exposure to mortgage-related CDOs after writedowns, which sounded like a lot until this news. Although B of A did report an eyebrow-raising $104 billion in "special purpose entities liquidity exposure," it's clear that the market didn't think the company would actually lose that much. With Bank of America now becoming the largest mortgage lender, the company's share of a $739 billion loss would be substantial indeed.
How does it affect the Countrywide merger?
This revelation raises questions about Bank of America's acquisition of Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), announced last month. After initially reading the move as CEO Ken Lewis' giant gamble that the U.S. slowdown would be less severe and shorter than many anticipated, I now wonder whether it was an entirely different sort of bet.
The Federal Reserve and the Bush Administration have drawn their lines in the sand with respect to the U.S. markets, indicating that they will consider any measures to stave off massive equity losses. Within this context, they can ill afford to let any of the enormous banks go under.
Was the Countrywide merger a strategic gamble that the resulting size of the company would exert even greater pressure on those in power to guarantee the company's survival? What did Ken Lewis know, and when did he know it? These are all questions that shareholders will undoubtedly be asking as these losses unfold.
With the merger priced at an 80% discount to Countrywide's 52-week highs above $40, though, it is entirely plausible that Bank of America perceived long-term value at $8 per share. At least one Countrywide stakeholder agrees.
Will Bank of America be the only victim?
Hardly. Major mortgage-lending competitors Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), and Citigroup (NYSE: C) will presumably face their share of losses as well. Across the pond, too, European banks with significant exposures to mortgage-backed securities, such as UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Deutsche Bank, are sure to join the fray. The results for European markets and the euro itself could be similarly painful.
What's the bottom line for investors and consumers?
If the losses spur the type of bailout for which Bank of America is lobbying, consumers will foot the bill through tax increases and/or inflation. If the government leaves the markets alone, a reversal from recent actions, we'll face plummeting equity markets and a continued credit crunch, matched with severe home devaluation and overall stagflation.
In either case, investors can expect further spillover from mortgage defaults into losses on credit card debt, auto and student loans, commercial real estate, etc. Somehow, I suspect that even this $739 billion number will not be the banks' final answer.
For me, the light at the end of the tunnel was extinguished this weekend. For anyone who owns a major mortgage lender, this is your last call to run, not walk, to the nearest exit.
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pipeman
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 03:38 pm |
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StanTheMan wrote: Isn't Johnson Ranch in the Queen Creek area? I just purchased a foreclosure home...1400 sq.ft. for $89k. It's a great little home! Things are tough all over. I think that wherever you have a dominance of starter homes you will have a problem with foreclosures, especially in a market like this. But, many can benefit from this market!
Stan, Johnson Ranch and the rest of us out here have a Queen Creek mailing address "ONLY". We are not in Queen Creek or their city limits..........PERIOD. . We are actually in unincorporated Pinal County. We have been trying to get realors to stop telling people that this is Queen Creek, but to date that has not happened As seen by the posting below.Last edited on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 03:50 pm by pipeman
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anne.reed
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 03:37 pm |
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StanTheMan wrote:
Isn't Johnson Ranch in the Queen Creek area? I just purchased a foreclosure home...1400 sq.ft. for $89k. It's a great little home! Things are tough all over. I think that wherever you have a dominance of starter homes you will have a problem with foreclosures, especially in a market like this. But, many can benefit from this market!
Yes, Stan, Johnson Ranch is in Queen Creek but not within the city limits. In fact, we are not even in the same county as Town of Queen Creek.
You are absolutely right, things are tough all over. However, I don't think the problem will be limited to the starter home market. I think this devaluation will continue through all price points within the market as it is a function of two factors:
1) Banks loaned money to speculators, first time buyers and everyone inbetween, without regard for their ability to repay the debt.
2) American consumers stopped living within their means, but began living on their inflationary profits from the housing boom.
I am pleased for your good fortune and welcome you to the community. But, $63.00 per square foot (89000/1400) is a pretty shocking price decline. Many residents have existing mortgages over $120.00 per square foot. What that means is to sell their homes they would need to pony up about $90,000 in the case of a 1400 square foot home. The fact that you purchased this home as a bank repo, creates further pressure on developers and builders to "fire sale" their inventories, lay-off workers, and do whatever they must to remain in business. Each of these factors fuel the downward pressure on real estate markets and the US economy, Meaning, the trend will probably get a lot worse before it gets better.
Regards,
Anne
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StanTheMan
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 03:10 pm |
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| Isn't Johnson Ranch in the Queen Creek area? I just purchased a foreclosure home...1400 sq.ft. for $89k. It's a great little home! Things are tough all over. I think that wherever you have a dominance of starter homes you will have a problem with foreclosures, especially in a market like this. But, many can benefit from this market!
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anne.reed
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Posted: Thu Feb 28th, 2008 01:25 am |
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Dear Bambi:
Yes, I am sure that the foreclosures listed in 85242 are mostly in 85243. Probably someones' web search for Queen Creek, AZ turned up 85242. All in all, we are Queen Creek whether they acknowledge us or not. Our fate will be their concern as well as ours.
Regards,
Anne
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Bambi
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Posted: Tue Feb 26th, 2008 07:30 pm |
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anne.reed wrote: http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/index.htm
In Arizona, Queen Creek has the most foreclosures with 271 by June 2007. This is pretty significant since we are such a small community when contrasted with the major metropolises which top the list. As these figures are updated I fear we will continue to climb the ladder of homeowner despair. Maricopa, Buckeye and other "hot" markets are not far behind.
Regards,
Anne
The danger of using zip codes for the foreclosure list in this case is that it includes Pinal County's Johnson Ranch area, so it's not really a true picture of Queen Creek or our area.
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starleen
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Posted: Tue Feb 26th, 2008 07:24 pm |
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I got this website from the AZ republic blog for the foreclosure article. I don't know if the stats are true but it's sure interesting:
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
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starleen
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Posted: Tue Feb 26th, 2008 07:09 pm |
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| I wonder how many of the foreclosures are on owner-occupied homes as opposed to invester owned properties.
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anne.reed
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Posted: Tue Feb 26th, 2008 07:06 pm |
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http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/index.htm
In Arizona, Queen Creek has the most foreclosures with 271 by June 2007. This is pretty significant since we are such a small community when contrasted with the major metropolises which top the list. As these figures are updated I fear we will continue to climb the ladder of homeowner despair. Maricopa, Buckeye and other "hot" markets are not far behind.
Regards,
Anne
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Bambi
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Posted: Tue Feb 26th, 2008 01:56 pm |
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Well, the latest news is from this mornings new....Arizona ranks 4th in the Nation for foreclosures. Nevada is first.
Worse yet. In the month of May, many loans are due to "roll over" to those higher interest rates. They are expecting another wave of foreclosures from that.
How can we compete with the foreclosures sales? We're approaching a $100,000. spread now between what the guy paid for the home and what it's worth today.
Last edited on Tue Feb 26th, 2008 03:00 pm by
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Bambi
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Posted: Sun Feb 10th, 2008 01:48 pm |
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Wise beyond her years wrote: I surprised you are recommending a variable rate loan in this economic environment.
Predatory lending practices and irresponsible referrals from professionals are in large part culpable for the heart ache we see flooding across Johnson Ranch, Queen Creek and other prime targets for sub prime lending.
How about FHA Secure or Mortgage Hope? These are new government sponsored programs for homeowners who got sucked in by the greed that motivated people to finance their lifestyle with inflation. Sadly, most are already upside down on their property (owe more than the property is worth) and these programs aren't designed to assist them.
As Morgan points out, some lenders are willing to streamline loans to reflect more favorable rates.
Just imagine how ugly it's gonna get when the underwriters as well as the lenders start dropping like flies.
Recommendation: If you are buried in an ARM or interest only note:
List your property with a Canadian broker (the value of their dollar is favorable for US investment)
Bring your payments current (beg, borrow...)
Get all your tax returns filed and current (requirement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lenders)
Don't even waste your time or money (applications fees often apply) applying for a commercial loan (they aren't even available to well qualified individuals with 70% LTV ratio-Stick to FHA or VA products in this market
Don't expect the interest rates cuts by the Fed to improve rates for consumers (it's just a bank bail out)
Don't fall prey to that mortgage lender that offers a mortgage that's too good to be true, it probably is
I did not recommend any loans. I identified these loans as being available. You are proving to be a person who is on here to undermine my posts and to give false guidance.
I recommend to posters and readers alike to research what this poster has posted before you embark on her directions. Some of her comments have been taken from other articles. And I do not suggest you list your property with a Canadian Broker. I suggest you have your realtor contact a Canadian Broker, and hope for a referral.
Last edited on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 02:35 pm by
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Wise beyond her years
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Posted: Sat Feb 9th, 2008 09:27 pm |
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I surprised you are recommending a variable rate loan in this economic environment.
Predatory lending practices and irresponsible referrals from professionals are in large part culpable for the heart ache we see flooding across Johnson Ranch, Queen Creek and other prime targets for sub prime lending.
How about FHA Secure or Mortgage Hope? These are new government sponsored programs for homeowners who got sucked in by the greed that motivated people to finance their lifestyle with inflation. Sadly, most are already upside down on their property (owe more than the property is worth) and these programs aren't designed to assist them.
As Morgan points out, some lenders are willing to streamline loans to reflect more favorable rates.
Just imagine how ugly it's gonna get when the underwriters as well as the lenders start dropping like flies.
Recommendation: If you are buried in an ARM or interest only note:
List your property with a Canadian broker (the value of their dollar is favorable for US investment)
Bring your payments current (beg, borrow...)
Get all your tax returns filed and current (requirement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lenders)
Don't even waste your time or money (applications fees often apply) applying for a commercial loan (they aren't even available to well qualified individuals with 70% LTV ratio-Stick to FHA or VA products in this market
Don't expect the interest rates cuts by the Fed to improve rates for consumers (it's just a bank bail out)
Don't fall prey to that mortgage lender that offers a mortgage that's too good to be true, it probably is
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Bambi
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Posted: Thu Feb 7th, 2008 07:01 pm |
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Exciting news. You can now get a 3/1 ARM or 5/1 ARM mortgage for 4.8% According to lenders, we are in a mini refi boom. So, hopefully, we should start to see purchases start to pick up.
Lower the rates again Federal Reserve....1/2 point will due just fine.
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Bambi
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Posted: Thu Jan 31st, 2008 06:26 pm |
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For a good comprehensive view of the real estate lending market, try this site.
http://www.bankrate.com
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Jan 30th, 2008 01:37 am |
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Well, I just heard on the news that two million, that's 2,000,000 more loans are due to have their interest rates rise this year and next on those subprimes and others with that type of escalation clause. And that foreclosures rose 80% in 07 over 06. Some staggering figures, that i guess we think can be averted with a $600. tax credit?
No one can buy an attitude change, and that's what we need.....with the assistance of a leader who knows how to lead us into that mentality of spending frugally, without the fear of it being our last dollar...our last meal.....our last job....before doomsday? A war costing us $720 million dollars a day, benefiting those in the "War" business, Corporations benefiting from that 720 mil., encouraged by the military industrial group of powerbrokers, who will be eventually running this planet....if we allow it to happen.
Off with the old and on with the new.....attitude, and let's cause this change to occur.
I hope the Feds bring that rate down a point....one whole point....and FHA introduces that program right afterwards, it just might help us make that attitude adjustment.
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Bambi
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Posted: Sun Jan 20th, 2008 03:56 pm |
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Now you are witnessing Homebuilders merging, to offset their losses, or to keep themselves from going out of business completely. I have seen this happen in other recessions, and is the first step towards recovery for them....sharing the winnings is better than no winnings at all.
The Establishment urging us to spend our money carefully, and even getting ready to spur that urge by releasing money to us. Now what will we do with that money? Spend it or pay overdue bills with it? Save it out of fear of running out of money? Yes, that will happen too, making the gift of that money useless in it's objective.
I met a man from SRP who is in their accounting dept. He says SRP is also hurting, as many people are just not paying their utility bills.....not just a few, but thousands, who have been effected, so thus continues the "trickle down" effect. Now, watch our utility bills rise, to offset their losses.
Today, if you can qualify, you can get an ARM 3/1, at only 5% interest. They're heading downward. Soon it will be 4%. And when FHA introduces that loan where you only have to come in with 1.5% down, at 4% interest, it will be like a candy store opening....or that's the effect it "should" have on us, if history repeats itself. Now just find the right house to go with it; purchase it; and the prices will start rising slowly again, and we'll be on the road to recovery.....barring a war or effects thereof. More jobs will be created as a result, thus more homes built to house those "jobbers", more business's opening up to serve them and on and on....trickle. And, if it get's too aggressive, then you'll see those interest rates heading back up as a way to regulate that growth. So, let's go easy this time around.
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SanTanEvents
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Posted: Sat Jan 19th, 2008 12:50 am |
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Bambi wrote: The foreclosure market is hot. Lots of buyers for those. The small builders I used to sell vacant lots to, are now buying these foreclosures. They can make just as much money buying those and not lifting a finger, as they can building a spec. house....so the vacant land market is flat.
I say look to 2008/early Fall, before we start bouncing back. There are many people who have walked from their homes, and the lender has yet to discover it.
I absolutely agree with that.
I've been checking historical stats for the month of January. Mainly because we were in the recent bubble and boy, did it burst. Many of my friends and neighbors are upside down in their homes. Buying at the peak and are riddled with buyers remorse. They come to me, "did you see that spec home with granite countertops? It's only $156k. I owe $220k on my home right now. What can you do for me?" Oooh, I don't want to answer that.
Anyway, I came here to talk numbers. It's been interesting to see what the numbers show.
Here's the skinny for Jan. In our area:
(These stat's include Queen Creek Proper & The unicorporated parts of P.C using the QC Mailing Address)
Month Year # of Homes Sold Avg. Sale Price
Jan 2002 13 144,576
Jan 2003 41 170,110
Jan 2004 46 173,099
Jan 2005 122 224,058
Jan 2006 112 308,000
Jan 2007 109 265,835
Jan 2008 66/clsd 202/awc&pending 144,755
With a possible 268 sales for Jan 2008 (the month isn't even over yet), and the prices retro'd to 2002, it has created another buying boost. Does that mean prices will increase? Not in the immediate future. We still have a very, very large inventory, 396 homes were listed for sale so far this month & and it's only Jan. 18th. Many of the seller's being banks & lenders pricing well under market value. Until that "just listed" number drops well below the amount of homes being sold I don't see home values increasing anytime soon.
For those of us that bought at the peak, it hurts, we are broken & weary. If you can't compete with the market my ultimate advice is don't sell. Don't list, don't add to the problem. If you can tough it out, try. Become a landlord or what ever you need to do. With it being harder & harder to find financing rentals have been coming back. If you absolutely need to sell and are willing to AGGRESSIVELY compete & possibly take a loss, there ARE buyers are out there, but they are bargain hunting.
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Bambi
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Posted: Mon Jan 14th, 2008 10:22 pm |
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Here's the entire Valleys MLS Inventory.
Homes active and on the Market: 61,381
Homes unsold and on the Market: 58,212
Homes sold in last 30 days: 3,169
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Bambi
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Posted: Mon Jan 14th, 2008 09:43 pm |
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I just receieved the Maricopa County Foreclosure list for this week. Last time I reported it, there were 642 homes being foreclosed upon.
This week it's 1300.
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Bambi
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Posted: Fri Jan 11th, 2008 04:18 pm |
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It's a crazy market out there. Cyclical. And so are people's emotions and confidence level. Receiving more calls recently. Can't wait till FHA offers their new program with only 1.5% down.
Feds meeting this month again. Hopefully they will reduce the rates a 1/2 point to a point.
Bank of America bought out Countrywide for billions.
Here's a link to Az. Multiple Listing Service's Home Sales Per Month Chart, showing sales from 2001 to 2007.
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/SoldChartNov07.pdf
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Bambi
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Posted: Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 02:07 pm |
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Times are still "tuff" out there. But, upon receiving the homes in foreclosure from the Title Company, there are fewer....156 pages....4 to a page. Not sure what significance that has, as may be due to Holidays....hopefully not.
173,000 people moved into our valley last year. And I think they all came out to the San Tans.
Mad Money is still advising people not to buy real estate, but instead to invest in oil and healthcare. Then he states, 2009 will be the time for real estate to pick back up. Soothsayers, but this guy is usually right on.
Prices still going down with the Builders, who are the ones setting the "pace" out here. They have told us that they will stop lowering prices the beginning of the new year.....let's see if they are speaking the truth.....developers speaking the truth....that's a new one.
Real estate offices still closing down, besides our Remax 2000 offices and Century 21 Metro Alliance in Q.C. Notice they are all Franchises and Run by Corporations? And that they shut us down without warning, bouncing our checks (Remax only)? And now they want us to come back as they have "fixed" the problem? They are the Problem. I have decided to take on the image of your Home Town (what town?) Real Estate Company. I am hiring a Broker today for Bambis Team, that is not tied to any large Corporation or Franchise.....just a local guy, who has a degree in Political Science; teaches Real Estate Law for the State, and teaches seniors in high school, Real Estate Law and the business. I am delighted to have such a great professional overseeing me. The County may not like it though, as he is like me, and will not allow indiscretions committed by a political body on it's citizens.
Talking about County......David Kuhl, one of the Department Heads of Planning and Development, was employed at Pinal before Christmas, but is not employed there after Christmas.....took another job.....kudos to him. He was good at what he did, but I think, and I say think, that he just couldn't work under that type of regime. He was also the one working on my case. Sorry to see him go.
Last edited on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 02:16 pm by
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Bambi
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Posted: Tue Dec 18th, 2007 11:21 pm |
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Here's some good news. One of the best programs available right now is FHA. After the first of the year, it is said that the loan limit will be raised to $417,000 from the current limit of $203,150. And, the down payment wil be lowered to 1.5% instead of 3%. FHA Loans are not credit based so lower FICO scores are acceptable.
Now, there is also the FHA Streamline loan. IF your parents have good credit and you have shown a good history of making timely payments on another home for about 2 years, but have some other credit issues, this is the program for you. Tell your parents that after 6 months on the loan, and as long as you have made timely payments during that 6 months, the parents can be taken off the loan and it's all yours...the kids.
See Morgan's husband. He's a lender.
Last edited on Tue Dec 18th, 2007 11:22 pm by
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Dec 12th, 2007 06:23 pm |
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nilbog wrote: 2 cents wrote: Why in the name of Harold would you take out anyother kind of loan than a 30 year fixed?
I have a 30 year fixed, with a good interest rate. So on Monday I get something in the mail from Countrywide (not my lender) asking if I'd like to refinance to a 40 year fixed mortgage. It was helpful to point out that I'd have extra money in my pocket each month. And I thought, sure, I'd love to still be paying a mortgage when I'm in my mid 70s!!
That company deserves what it gets.
Lets dissect this 30 and 40 year mortgage.
The purchaser is taking out a $150,000. mortgage, at 6% interest rate, amortized over 40 years. That equates to a grand whopping $246,153.82 dollars in just interest alone paid out to Countrywide's investors, with a payment of $825. a month, P and I only. A 30 year is $173,757.28 in interest alone, with a payment of $899. a month. Sure they want your business and it's easier to qualify for.
Now lets take out a 15 year mortgage at 6%, based on the $150k. Interest paid is only $77,841.34 over the 15 years. Payment is $1265.79 a month, P and I. Higher payment equals higher qualifying standards applied. But, the payment here is applying more money towards the principal than the interest, so is a much better deal in the long run.....you save a $100,000. in cash.
Most Arms are amortized over 30 years, and are all due and payable in a shorter time (2,3 or 5 year time frames usually). Those payments usually only cover the interest, as the balloon will be for almost the original amount financed. They are primarily used to "buy time."
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nilbog
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Posted: Wed Dec 12th, 2007 05:53 pm |
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2 cents wrote: Why in the name of Harold would you take out anyother kind of loan than a 30 year fixed?
I have a 30 year fixed, with a good interest rate. So on Monday I get something in the mail from Countrywide (not my lender) asking if I'd like to refinance to a 40 year fixed mortgage. It was helpful to point out that I'd have extra money in my pocket each month. And I thought, sure, I'd love to still be paying a mortgage when I'm in my mid 70s!!
That company deserves what it gets.
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2 cents
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Posted: Wed Dec 12th, 2007 02:11 pm |
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Why in the name of Harold would you take out anyother kind of loan than a 30 year fixed? You're just asking for trouble. Most of us are non-professional when it comes to the smoke and mirror shell game.
Flippin' idiots!
2 cents
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Bambi
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Posted: Tue Dec 11th, 2007 01:56 pm |
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Well, let's see if I can remember what I heard this a.m.
First: We are number one in Foreclosures.....Arizona.
As a tenant. If you discover your landlord's home you live in, is being foreclosed upon, you should stay put; put the payment(s) in an account to accrue, because if the foreclosure sale does not go thru, and the landlord takes it back, you will still owe those back payments. If the sale does go thru, your lease becomes null and void and you best hit the road...quickly. But, now you have money saved, to do it again.
Mad Money Man believes as I do. If the Feds don't drop that interest rate at least a half a point, we will see a recession. A full point would even be better. Remember, soon after 911, they were down to 1 point to stimulate the economy, and it worked.
The State is suffering a budget loss in 08 of around $1 billion. It will escalate up to 1.5 billion in 09. That means job losses and more foreclosures. It creates a dommino effect.
So, here's a Presidential candidate who wants to rid ourselves of excesses.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/video/playerindex?id=3971133
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Bambi
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Posted: Wed Nov 21st, 2007 02:39 pm |
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Another day. Appears that Countrywide has finally decided to offer some relief to it's mortgagees....albeit a bit too late perhaps.
Waiting 8 months to do this is a corporate greed factor. They have been foreclosing willingly on these properties, then sell the forclosed property to another party, usually an investor, and then proceed to write a new loan for the investor, which is enough to cover the loss on the old one. The consumers loss is their gain.
And who gets the short end of the stick? the original consumer that was talked into taking out a 2 year ARM, with an incredible interest escalation, with the illusionary promise that his equity will escalate to cover the increase.....poor advice by loan officers in order to make a buck. False promises. Crystal balls. But all legal. The Feds better devise and install some better protectionary "devices" for the consumer in the equation, or it will just happen again and again.
Don't accept any ARM loan that is less than 5 years, and tell them you want no interest escalations before the baloon is due. Better yet, stick with the 30 year fixed, unless you are a very sophisticated buyer and are aware of the pitfalls of ARMS.
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Bambi
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Posted: Fri Nov 16th, 2007 04:59 pm |
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Boy oh Boy. I wish I could hear some good news for a change. Just a little wisp of a cool breeze that has fresh flower petals flowing thru it, building my confidence and courage as it begins to lift my spirits.
But no. This week alone, we have had three, that's 3, couples come into our office, seeking shelter again as they were "duped" into believing their landlords word. The landlords "word" of promise was that as his tenants and as long as they pay their rent, they can live in his/her home.
Not true. There are no guarantees. The 3 different landlords of these three families was not passing the payment onto the mortgage company. They were spending the rent money on personal items, and allowing the home, with the tenants occupying it, to go into foreclosure. The Lender sent their reps over to take possession of the homes.....unbeknownst to the tenants. They had to leave immediately.
So, lesson learned. When you go to sign a lease agreement, perhaps you should insist on writing the check to cover the Mortgage, to the Mortgage Co. every month, and the second check can be the overage, made out to the landlord.
Last edited on Fri Nov 16th, 2007 05:00 pm by
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Bambi
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Posted: Sun Oct 21st, 2007 06:47 pm |
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Ok now. Let's see some of the events happening in this industry.
Feds are due to decide on interest rates in a another week. Best buff their crystal ball, for a clear view.
Housing slowdown is going to play out for alot longer. People are still walking away from their homes, as the solutions provided by the lenders has come a day late and a dollar short. Where were these lenders when the people were first asking for help? They were in their cushioned seats, in their air conditioned offices, telling these people with a cockey attitude, that no help will arrive until they are three months in the arrears. That's too late. Then the lender changed their minds, and are now coming with offers...too late once again...no one there any longer to answer the phone or pick up the mail. A stingey attitude was the accomplice to this event.
Those homes are now vacant, awaiting the lender's representatives to take them over and take them to auction where those that have saved their money for this day, can buy them for 5 cents on the dollar.....investors. Then those same investors turn around and rent that house out to the same guy, who asked for that lender to lower the payment amount in the first place to the rate they gave the investor.
Last month, builders broke ground on the fewest number of homes in 14 years. The Confidence level among these builders is the lowest in 27 years............ that means fewer jobs; no job? can't purchase much of anything; now business are closing down as no customers; Realtors closing down as no customers.....the domino effect. What's going up? Taxes!
Drop those interest rates. Builders; get those prices back up again.
And don't look for me on the Our Queen Creek site. We are finished with that Site. Now, we just operate the Bambisteam.com site and will expand upon that.
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bobthebuilder
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Posted: Fri Oct 19th, 2007 10:09 pm |
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| . Last edited on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 06:09 pm by bobthebuilder
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winative
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Posted: Fri Oct 19th, 2007 08:59 pm |
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I agree, investors should have more strict guidelines to follow when purchasing homes. Now we have all these vacant rental homes in San Tan Heights and all the other communities too. I knew all these investors would create a falsely growing housing market out here.
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