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Hartlyboy
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Joined: Mon Oct 3rd, 2005
Location:  Kenton, Delaware USA
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 Posted: Tue Nov 18th, 2008 06:37 pm
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We have a slightly different view of the role speculators play in the oil markets.

 The supply versus demand, geopolitical factors, the value of the dollar, etc., all determine the price of crude in the short term -the typical 90 day window used by commercial consumers. Speculators come in one the 'long' contracts where industry or even foreign government hedge funds buy futures and the speculators bid on them in anticipation of higher prices in the future. Those higher prices could be the expected result of less production in a tight supply situation, a change in how the industry is taxed or regulated, etc.

Interestingly enough, at a government hearing last December , Caruso, Administrator of the Energy Information Administration, DOE, told Congress that high prices at the retail market had little effect on consumption and thus supply. He also felt the role that speculators play is more long term than immediate, but they were a factor in price per barrel in the market when prices were moving up [not down]. He was unwilling to quantify their effect, but recognized it. They are a multiplier effect to the long term market, in short.

All that to say, I think long term matters and we'll just have to see where it all goes as we again change direction in our energy policy -or lack thereof.

Last edited on Tue Nov 18th, 2008 06:41 pm by Hartlyboy

Fred
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 Posted: Tue Nov 18th, 2008 02:20 pm
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Hartlyboy wrote: I think the price will go back up when O does his executive order bit cancelling drilling and and bankrupting the coal industry. The speculators will get the signal that once again we don't have the will to do a maximum effort to add to our own supply and then the futures go up. The economy won't be healed by then and the supply won't be all that different as a result of the continued downturn. All that will change is the anticipation on the part of the people who make the prices.
Sorry, HB, but I don't the President's signature to lift the drilling ban did anything, but if you can find a reputable business source that says so, let me know. See, oil "futures" are waaaay shorter than the timeframe we are talking about, so oil delivery prices for 90 days would not be affected by the possibility of oil in several years. If what you think is true, than why would not have Congress going more Democratic, and the less liklihood of the ban being lifted INCREASED the price?

So...I say to you that it will go back up as the economy picks up, regardless of who the President would have been and the status of the drilling ban.

What we have to do is realize the low prices are temporary, and not take steps whatever they may be.  As I've said before....I'll support limited drilling IF other steps are taken at the same time, with the emphasis NOT on the drilling but the alternatives.


 

Hartlyboy
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 Posted: Tue Nov 18th, 2008 05:11 am
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I think the price will go back up when O does his executive order bit cancelling drilling and and bankrupting the coal industry. The speculators will get the signal that once again we don't have the will to do a maximum effort to add to our own supply and then the futures go up. The economy won't be healed by then and the supply won't be all that different as a result of the continued downturn. All that will change is the anticipation on the part of the people who make the prices.

Fred
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 Posted: Tue Nov 18th, 2008 01:43 am
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Hartlyboy wrote: After Obama gets in and cancels all the drilling , $5-6 everywhere.....

If you want to continue to believe that the drop in prices has something to do with anything other than a drop in demand due to the world wide economic slowdown, sure....but I've got some swampland in Leipsic that I am sure you will also love.

However, I suspect oil and gas prices will go back up during the Obama administration...about the same time the economy picks back up. When there is increased economic activity, there will be an increase in demand for gas.

I am not sure if we'll ever go back to gas hogs, but it wouldn't surprise me to see sales of these vehicles increase, especially with auto dealers doing as bas as they are (and, as a matter of fact, a SUV commercial just came on TV as I was typing this). When this happens and we start consuming gas, THEN the price will go back up.

Last edited on Tue Nov 18th, 2008 01:49 am by Fred

DelawareNative
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 Posted: Sun Nov 16th, 2008 06:50 am
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Pffft....

Hartlyboy wrote: After Obama gets in and cancels all the drilling , $5-6 everywhere.....

Last edited on Sun Nov 16th, 2008 06:50 am by DelawareNative

Playing the Game
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 Posted: Fri Nov 14th, 2008 12:10 pm
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Ever the optimist HB.  With where inflation will be at that point, it will be $5 to $6 in today's $$.

Hartlyboy
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 Posted: Fri Nov 14th, 2008 04:58 am
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After Obama gets in and cancels all the drilling , $5-6 everywhere.....

Playing the Game
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 Posted: Thu Nov 13th, 2008 05:34 pm
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$1.89 at Sam's Club, $1.91 at WaWa on Rte 10.

SomeDoverGuy
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 Posted: Thu Nov 13th, 2008 05:18 pm
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It's 1.94 at the WAWA here on Route 8.

tspong
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 Posted: Fri Nov 7th, 2008 04:36 pm
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What do you think?

From the Delaware State News:

Gas spotted below $2 a gallon in Milford

Price hovers near level of March 2005


By Catherine Williams


Delaware State News


DOVER — As crude-oil prices plunge, the average cost per gallon of gasoline in Delaware has been steadily decreasing and is close to $2.


On Thursday in Milford, it even dipped below that figure.


"I would have never thought that gas would get this low again when it was up to $4," said Camden resident Melissa Allen as she fueled her car at the Smyrna Wawa on Wednesday, where regular unleaded gas was selling for $2.08 a gallon.


Gas prices in Delaware have dropped about $1.05 over the past month.


The question that remains is will the average Delaware gas price go below $2?


"There’s no way to say for sure, but it’s certainly a distinct possibility," said Catherine Rossi, spokeswoman for AAA Mid-Atlantic.


Five gas stations in Milford reportedly offered gas below $2 on Thursday, with some stations selling gas for as little as $1.94 per gallon.


The last time the average price per gallon of gasoline in Delaware was below $2 was March 18, 2005, when the state’s average was $1.99.


As of Thursday, Delaware’s average was $2.23 per gallon.


Ms. Rossi said if gas prices continue to tumble, Delawareans could see it below $2 a gallon sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas.


"This at the moment bodes very well for the holiday season," Ms. Rossi said, adding that lower fuel prices will free up money for people to spend on holiday expenses.


However, the price paid at the pump all depends on how much a barrel of crude oil costs.


Oil prices have fallen by about 55 percent since peaking at $147.27 a barrel in mid-July.


On Wednesday, the price of crude on the international spot market dipped to $68.55 before settling up at $70.53.


Since Delaware gas prices set an all-time high of $4.07 on June 18, most drivers have been cutting back on their driving.


Contractor Mike Otto, of Elkton, Md., works in Delaware and drives a Ford F-150 pickup truck for his job.


"I don’t drive this thing as much as I used to," Mr. Otto said, adding that when he is home he drives a smaller car and reserves his truck for work only.


"I was spending $80 or $90 to fill up my truck, but now it just filled up for $42," said Mr. Otto, who was fueling his truck at the Smyrna Wawa Wednesday.


Although lower gas prices offer much needed relief, Mr. Otto said he will still try his best to conserve gasoline.


"I learned my lesson," he said.


Ms. Allen, however, had a different point of view.


"I’m not conserving gas anymore like I was," she said, adding that she was happy the gas prices are going so low.


Ms. Rossi said that part of the reason gas prices are decreasing is that demand for gasoline is down.


"Reports show gas demand is down 3.5 percent and the number of miles driven by U.S. vehicles fell sharply," Ms. Rossi said.


She said people are driving less and, despite today’s low gas prices, consumers aren’t convinced the lower prices are here to stay.


"People don’t know what to expect next," Ms. Rossi said.


The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said last month it would cut output quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day in addition to a 520,000-barrel cut announced earlier. Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez has said OPEC, which controls about 40 percent of world crude-oil production, may slash production by at least 1 million barrels daily when it meets next in December.


Although the threat of higher crude-oil costs is looming, Delawareans can rest assured that for now, gas prices will remain at this level.


"The price of gasoline steadily continues to decline," Ms. Rossi said.


The Associated Press contributed to this report.


Post your opinions in the public issues forum at newszap.com.


Staff writer Catherine Williams can be reached at 741-8242 or ckazimir@newszap.com.

Playing the Game
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 Posted: Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 12:23 pm
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I hope we continue to press for ANWR and Off Shore Domestic Drilling as well.

bostondog
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 Posted: Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 10:26 am
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Agreed, politics (excluding radical actions by oil producing countries) is not a predominate contributor to gas prices either up or down.  I expect gas will decline a bit more or remain relatively steady during this global economic funk.  Futures are a good indicator of where prices may be going, but there are alot of hands in the till between that pricing and when it goes into your tank.  I'm enjoying the respite from the $4 range.  I just hope that alternative energy initiatives do not fall by the wayside.

Last edited on Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 10:26 am by bostondog

Playing the Game
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 Posted: Sat Nov 1st, 2008 01:10 pm
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In case you just crawled out from under a rock, the world economy and oil is tied completely to consumption, has tanked.  This has caused the price of all fossil fuels to tumble.  Actually gasoline could still be cheaper since it is selling on the futures market at $1.44 per gallon.

curiousindover
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 Posted: Sat Nov 1st, 2008 07:14 am
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I find it amazing to see the drop in gasoline prices. A month ago it was $3.37 in Dover. Friday it was $2.14. Could it be we've found a new supply and "suddenly" it's costing less? Or is it a pre-election ploy by the oil companies to help the Republicans make some points in their pitiful run for the White House and Congress. Wonder what the price will be a week after the elections are over? Just curious.


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