Consultant says route to Florida would make more than $1 million for carrier

Delaware State News

DOVER — Getting to Disney World could get easier for Downstate residents.

An airline would net an estimated $1.2 million a year if it launched passenger service between Dover and Orlando, Fla., an authority on the economics of air travel reported Wednesday. And he said there is an airline interested in doing just that.

Randal A. Wiedemann, a consultant hired to study the feasibility of offering regular air passenger service in Kent County, said a survey of local residents’ travel habits indicated that Orlando is their favorite leisure destination. They would make 16,000 to 17,000 trips there annually, enough to justify two round-trip jet flights weekly by a leisure or vacation airline, he said.

Mr. Wiedemann said the proposed air service would be based at the Kent County Civil Air Terminal, off Horsepond Road.

That facility already is used heavily by auto racing personnel on NASCAR weekends at Dover International Speedway, but has not hosted regular commercial passenger flights since a small airline, Wings, operated there in the early 1980s.

Re-establishing passenger service could qualify the Civil Air Terminal for federal funding for improvements, which, in turn, could make the facility more attractive to commercial freight carriers, said Dennis Klima, chairman of Kent Economic Partnership.

The nonprofit partnership, which promotes development in Kent County, administers the $150,000 fund paying for the work by the Kentucky-based Mr. Wiedemann. The U.S. Department of Transportation Small Community Air Service Development Program provided 90 percent of the money, with the remainder coming from Dover, Kent County Levy Court and local businesses.

Mr. Wiedemann said he hopes to obtain a commitment within several months from an airline that would serve Dover.

Improving the Civil Air Terminal to meet federal standards would cost an estimated $150,000 and take probably four or five months, he said.

He did not name the airlines with which he has talked on Kent County’s behalf.

Not all his report was upbeat. He reiterated his contention — first reported in the spring — that commuter air service between Dover and a major airport would be unattractive to an airline unless it were subsidized.

Based on the same survey that determined that flights to Orlando would be profitable, he found that an airline would lose $800,000 to $1.5 million per year under scenarios ranging from 13 to 28 weekly round trips between Dover and Baltimore Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport in Maryland or Washington Dulles International Airport in Washington, D.C.

But federal subsidies are available and have enabled some communities of Dover’s size to maintain air service that otherwise would not be affordable, Mr. Wiedemann said.

Two airlines are interested in providing such service — using turboprop planes — if they wouldn’t lose money on it, he said.

"An airline is not going to come in on its own and lose money," he said. "They would want some sort of guarantee."

He said he ruled out Philadelphia International Airport as a possible destination for commuter flights from Dover. Kent County residents, he said, can drive to Philadelphia with relative ease.

"The automobile is too difficult to compete against when (a major airport) is that close," he said.

Growing population, levels of passenger travel are factors

Delaware State News

DOVER — Passenger air service may be feasible for Dover, according to a cautiously optimistic report from an airline industry consultant.

The report, prepared by Kentucky-based Randall A. Wiedemann, says the Dover area’s growing population and its residents’ existing levels of air travel for business and leisure are among factors that indicate the city might be regarded favorably by an airline seeking a new market — especially if the economy improves.

The recession is "the X factor in all this," Mr. Wiedemann said Tuesday.

His report, issued last month but still little-known locally, was commissioned by the economic development organization Kent Economic Partnership with the support of local governments and businesses. It was funded primarily by a grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation.

It describes a weakening air travel industry, but asserts that local demand suggests there is reason to hope that Dover would sustain a small passenger service.

"Passenger traffic has been worsening in both domestic and international markets and few regions throughout the world are seeing signs of positive growth," Mr. Wiedemann wrote. But he went on to say that in Dover "due to strong core economic and demographic fundamentals, it can be definitively stated that a significant base-level demand for local air services exists. Even with more conservative assumptions ... the demand levels suggest some promise."

In a telephone interview Tuesday, he said the most service Dover reasonably could expect initially would be three departures daily on weekdays — and fewer on weekends — to major airports. An airline willing to take a chance on serving Dover probably would want its operation subsidized, he added.

The federal transportation department helps pay for passenger service for some 140 communities that otherwise might not have it.

Daniel W. Wolfensberger, chief executive officer of Kent Economic Partnership, said Dover has been without regular commercial passenger flights since the early 1980s, when a small airline, Wings, operated from the Kent County Civil Air Terminal off Horsepond Road.

That facility, which utilizes the runway of Dover Air Force Base, meets federal standards for commercial flight, Mr. Wiedemann noted. It is used heavily by NASCAR personnel on race weekends at Dover International Speedway, when private jets line the fence separating the terminal from the industrial buildings of Kent County AeroPark.

Commercial flights to the terminal could mean more customers for Dover Downs Hotel & Casino, said that business’s CEO, Edward J. Sutor.

"It would enable us to bring in more than just regional conventions," he said, explaining that Dover Downs currently markets itself as a convention center only for groups within driving distance, mainly Washington, D.C., to New York.

And it could make Dover Downs more attractive to gamblers, especially after both sports betting and table games become available, Mr. Sutor said.

Mr. Wiedemann, in the next phase of his research, is to examine the costs of passenger service for Dover and determine airlines’ interest in providing it.

To Angela Armutcu, owner of Jetset Travel on South DuPont Highway, local departures to vacation destinations could be a godsend to her clients.

"I think it would be wonderful. Will people pay a little more to fly out of Delaware? Of course," she said. But if a flight is only from Dover to Philadelphia International or Baltimore-Washington International, where vacationers would change planes, its appeal, she said, would be diminished.

"What’s the advantage?" she asked, saying most vacation travelers don’t want to change planes because of the time and effort involved, the possibility of lost luggage and the inconvenience for parents accompanied by small children.

Such service indeed is the sort Dover likely would receive initially, according to Mr. Wiedemann.

His report includes a survey in which local residents indicated they would pay more for local air service "assuming the schedule, frequency, etc. was satisfactory." Business travelers would pay an average of $80 more round-trip ticket to depart from Dover while leisure travelers were willing to add $68 to the price of a ticket.

Whether three to six departures daily would be satisfactory to many Dover travelers is unknown.

"You have to remember, the competition is with the automobile" when an airline offers flights to big-city airports. "The greater the frequency, the better you compete."

Faced with waiting for hours for the next flight, he said, some travelers would prefer driving.