Delaware State News
DOVER — In an election year in which the first Delawarean has appeared on a major-party presidential ticket and registration totals point to a big Democratic year, the most surprising thing might be that a statewide Republican incumbent has a 2-to-1 edge over his Democratic opponent.
Additionally, in a year in which "change" is the buzzword swirling through nearly every race, a 36-year statewide incumbent is breezing toward a seventh six-year term, despite being pulled out of state and away from door-knocking in Delaware.
But these are not two ordinary politicians. Rep. Michael N. Castle, R-Del., and Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., D-Del., have been serving on a statewide level for a combined 64 years, winning 17 elections.
"Delaware has traditionally had the pattern that once they embrace you — usually after the second election — they tend to continue to do so," said retired University of Delaware political science professor Dr. James R. Soles.
"I’ve only seen one or two times in modern times where incumbent Congress people are not popular. Even in defeat (in 2000, former senator William V.), Roth was highly popular and well-regarded."
According to a poll released two weeks ago by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, Sen. Biden holds a commanding lead over Republican opponent Christine O’Donnell, 69 percent to 26 percent, while Rep. Castle has more than doubled up on Democrat Karen Hartley-Nagle, 62 percent to 28 percent.
In fact, the poll shows that Rep. Castle is in a statistical tie with Ms. Hartley-Nagle among Democratic voters, 47 percent to 44 percent.
Dr. Soles said that neither party has mounted a serious challenge against either incumbent.
"I don’t think (Ms. Hartley-Nagle or Ms. O’Donnell) would be the candidate if either party thought they had a chance to win," he said, noting that both parties have elected officials who could have challenged the incumbents.
Dr. Larry J. Sabato, a national political expert at the University of Virginia, agreed, noting that neither challenger has raised a substantial amount of money.
"Why would you waste money in a futile effort?" Dr. Sabato asked.
According to Federal Election Commission reports for the period ending Aug. 20, Ms. O’Donnell had $17,300 on hand, while Ms. Hartley-Nagle had a balance of negative $300. Rep. Castle had $1.5 million and Sen. Biden had $1.9 million in the bank.
Ms. Hartley-Nagle said the PublicMind poll reflected a survey she did earlier on name recognition, but she said that people are ready for a change.
"I can’t really combat the name recognition," she said. "People really like Congressman Castle, but they also feel it’s time for a change.
"Realistically, I’m not going to be able to compete with $2 million. The three-way (Democratic) primary depleted my funds … Letting people know there’s an alternative is more important now than name recognition."
Ms. Hartley-Nagle said she has put out a number of news releases about her positions on issues and challenging Rep. Castle's stances on several topics, but the media hasn’t covered many of them.
Ms. O’Donnell said she has seen polls that show her only eight points behind Sen. Biden and is continuing to press the issue that the senator is being disingenuous in running for re-election while on the Democratic ticket as the vice-presidential candidate.
"If Biden wins both, Gov. Ruth Ann Minner gets to pick his successor, not Delaware voters," Ms. O’Donnell said. "A vote for Joe is a vote for you don’t know who."
Ms. O’Donnell said she is holding events each week in each county to meet people and try to "earn their trust and earn their votes."
"(Biden) refuses to debate me," she said. "Joe Biden is expecting people to blindly vote for him without letting people hold him accountable for his voting record."
Although the senator is campaigning around the country, Biden campaign spokesman Alex Snyder-Mackler said that Sen. Biden would be in Delaware to campaign for re-election.
"We’re pleased with the results (of the poll), but there’s still a lot of time until Election Day, and Sen. Biden will continue to work every day on the issues of concern to Delawareans and to earn their support," he said.
Rep. Castle said he doesn’t put a lot of stock in polls, save for the big one on Election Day. He noted that while 2008 is not an easy election year for Republicans, it is not atypical of Delawareans to cross party lines in their support.
But that does not mean he is complacent.
"Any time you get comfortable in elected office, watch out," Rep. Castle, adding that Republicans have to rely on bipartisan support and cannot take any opponent for granted.
Rep. Castle noted that in the months after his 2006 re-election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dispatched an operative to Delaware to try to field a strong candidate to unseat him in 2008, but they backed away from that plan.
In recent years, Democrats have boasted about having a deep bench of office-holders and potential candidates for higher office, so why didn’t any of them emerge?
"Democrats poll, as do Republicans," Rep. Castle said. "You have a sense of (an incumbent’s) approval and your chance of winning.
"There’s no great magic to it. People don’t just decide to run. You can absorb a loss, but you can’t really take two or more and continue to offer yourself as a viable candidate. People are careful about that."
Dr. Soles said the issue comes down to timing, and this year might not be the right time to try to defeat longtime incumbents who still are relatively popular.
As an example of someone who has great political timing, Dr. Soles pointed to Democratic Sen. Thomas R. Carper, who was elected state treasurer in 1976 and waited six years before running for U.S. House, resisting calls to run for other offices earlier.
And rather than challenge Rep. Castle for governor in 1984, he continued to serve in Washington until Rep. Castle’s constitutionally limited two terms were up in 1992.
"For Carper, the timing was right to run against Roth (in 2000)," Dr. Soles said. "Carper is a case study in timing."
