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Terrance
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| Joined: | Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 |
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| Posts: | 1117 |
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 09:21 pm |
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Brendan Buschi wrote: When the Titanic first hit the iceberg, I doubt if anyone knew what was about to happen. The sad truth is that regardless of whether or not anyone knew what was about to happen, what happened was going to happen anyway.
Our economy has hit an iceberg. I doubt if anyone could tell you just when that happened. There have been many indications that something was wrong, but we have labeled them and interpreted them on the fly and we have been wrong in every instance. No one has called it for what it was; the hull has been breached and the ship is sinking.
We have all witnessed the symptoms of a major breach. We’ve seen banks fail. We’ve seen businesses close. We’ve seen jobs disappear. We’ve seen corporate misconduct and crime. We’ve seen the cost of everything increase. We’ve seen record foreclosures. We’ve seen the value of all investments, including real estate, drop.
I think we have looked at each one of these events as unrelated. We’ve relied on our political leaders too much. We’ve ignored the water rising in the hold and the fact that the ship is floating lower in the water. We’ve continued to buy on credit and amass debt.
Even when we were confronted with horrific acts such as those of Oklahoma City and 9/11, we chose to rely on the wisdom of our political leaders. Actually, we chose to be pacified by empty explanations and promises.
It would not be totally wrong to compare us to substance impaired passengers on this great sinking ship. We have certainly been consuming legal and illegal substances in record amounts. We have certainly been unaware of the repeated failures of all of the solutions that our leaders have come up with.
After 9/11, we allowed our leaders to take us into a disastrous war without due research and deliberation. Our Congress approved flawed legislation in virtually no time at all. Now, after hearing repeatedly that our economy was sound, our leaders have approved a gigantic funding bill within days of hearing that our economy wasn’t sound.
I seriously doubt that any member of Congress knew much more about what was happening than any one of us. Nevertheless, they approved giving almost $1,000,000,000,000 to Henry Paulson, our Secretary of the Treasury. It took them about a week to decide to do this. Imagine that? We still have no idea how he is going to use this money which we did not have to give in the first place.
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped below 10,000 for the first time in over 4 years. About a year ago it was over 14,000. This record loss can only be described as phenomenal.
Does anyone really think that any of our leaders have a clue as to what is happening? Does anyone really think that we have seen the end to this avalanche of economic woe? Does anyone believe that any of the money men (bankers, investors, stock brokers, etc.) know how to fix this?
I suggest that the water our ship is about to disappear into is very cold and dark. A lot of people are going to drown. Those who survive are not going to come out of this unscathed. I am too young to remember the Great Depression, but I was raised by people who lived through it. If there was one thing they all seemed to agree on it was that “debt” is evil.
The Great Depression did not simply end. The economic chaos we experienced here at that time was not contained on our continent. That economic chaos was shared then as it is now by the rest of the world. That economic chaos led to World War II.
I don’t have any answers for what is happening now. I don’t think anyone does. No matter how much I would like to believe that someone does, I don’t think anyone does. I fear these events will play out much the same as the events on the Titanic did after it hit the iceberg.
I will take some comfort in not voting for John McCain who said “the fundamentals of our economy are sound” less than 6 hours before admitting that we were in an economic meltdown. However, given the magnitude of the crisis, any comfort may be transitory at best.
I know that despite what anyone tells you, there comes a time to pay the piper. I fear we are all about to find out what that really means. Being submerged in cold, dark water can have a sobering effect. It would be sad and ironic if the first truly sober awareness most of us have is that of drowning.
Well the market dropped another 500 points today. Maybe we should be talking about Noah and the flood instead of the Titanic.
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Hartlyboy
Member
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 05:58 pm |
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A cute tale but the beneficiaries of the bailout are incorrectly described. Most of the investment bankers getting the cake were big Dem supporters (71%, I believe), including the dude from Lehman in front of Congress today who Waxman scolded for going out to a fancy lunch after the big mess occurred. As if THAT was his biggest crime.
Other than that, a cute fable...
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Skjuda
Member
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 04:36 am |
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Welcome back brendan, glad to hear you are in good shape. Wish you would visit nore often.
Here is a little tale I picked up heheh 
SCENE I: The Oval Office. GEORGE W. BUSH is sitting behind his desk, staring at the ceiling, bored. There are two chairs on either side of his desk; one is a wing chair, and one is a chair that swivels. The back of that chair is facing the audience; light snoring issues forth from it, but we cannot see who occupies it.
BUSH is waiting for HENRY PAULSON, his Secretary of the Treasury, to come in and tell him what to do about the credit crisis. He amuses himself by spinning in circles in his leather executive chair.
A knock is heard at the door.
BUSH: Come in, Paulie! (continues spinning around in his chair)
PAULSON (entering with a smile): Mr. President!
BUSH (stopping the spinning to look at PAULSON): Geez, Paulie, am I glad to see you! (Tries to get up from the chair to shake PAULSON’s hand, staggers and puts his hand on the desk to recover)
PAULSON (indulgently): Now, George, I’ve warned you about spinning in that chair - it always makes you dizzy!
BUSH (petulantly): Then they shouldn’t make it so much fun! (refocusing, gesturing for PAULSON to sit down) Anyway, Paulie, what’s goin’ on in this here economy?
PAULSON (sitting in the wing chair beside BUSH’s desk): Mr. President, we’re in a heckuva mess, I tell you. The credit market is completely frozen. No one will lend businesses money so that they can continue, well, doing business. It’s all because of that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stuff. They went a little crazy with those subprime mortgages.
BUSH: Jeez, was that what McCain was babbling about in 2006? I thought he was havin’ a senior moment!
(PAULSON and BUSH chuckle manfully)
BUSH: Anywho, what should we do about it?
PAULSON: Well, some are calling it a crisis, but I call it an opportunity. This is the chance we were waiting for - the chance to give your friends one last big check before you leave office and take refuge in, um, I mean, retire to Paraguay!
BUSH: Yeah. Say, did I tell about how great that place is? So much prettier than that goddamn dusty ranch in Texas. We’re talkin’ green, green mountains and -
PAULSON (interrupting): Yes, Mr. President, and it sounds absolutely wonderful! But if we could focus on this great opportunity now?
BUSH (magnanimously): Sure, sure. Tell me more, Paulie.
PAULSON (getting up and pacing): Mr. President, when you got Congress to pass the AUMF, the Patriot Act and the Military Commissions Act; when you got them to approve retroactive immunity for your warrantless wiretapping program; when you were able to keep the war budget off the books each and every year; what did all those things have in common?
BUSH (smiling): I kicked some ass, Texas-style! I punished the evildoers and killed the man who tried to kill my daddy! And, of course, I made those idiot Democrats look like a bunch of wusses.
PAULSON: Absolutely true, Mr. President! But what else?
CHENEY (turning around in the swivel chair, where he has been napping) We expanded executive power and made our friends very, very rich.
PAULSON (surprised): Mr. Vice President! I didn’t know you were here. Great to see you! (strides over to shake CHENEY’s hand)
PAULSON (sotto voce to BUSH at the desk): I didn’t see his translator on your desk - I assumed he wasn’t coming to this meeting!
BUSH (sotto voce): Yeah, well, that thing kept malfunctioning. So, we had the inventors make it smaller and install it with his latest Pacemaker. Works like a charm! Heh-heh.
PAULSON (back in his wing chair): Yes, well, Mr. Vice President, you are exactly right. And I figure, you scared the Congress into doing what you want all those other times - why not do it again?
CHENEY (snarl-grinning): I like the way you think, young man. Please continue.
PAULSON (with confidence): Here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to panic the American people and Wall Street. The stock market will go crazy! Then, we’ll tell Congress their ONLY ALTERNATIVE is to buy out those bad mortgages from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And, we’ll also tell them that they have to do it NOW because otherwise, the entire economy will be destroyed!
BUSH: Heh. So, we’ll scare ‘em and rush ‘em. I love it! But when’s the part where me and all my friends get richer and more powerful?
CHENEY: Henry means to tell Congress to entrust him, and him alone, with this bailout. No oversight, all the power he needs to, shall we say, “fix” the mess? And of course, all of our friends will keep their hard-earned golden parachutes and comfortable lifestyles. Isn’t that right, Henry? (looks impishly at PAULSON)
PAULSON (admiringly): Got it in one, Mr. Vice-President! My proposal is only three pages long. It’s got more holes than your Van Halen t-shirt from 1985! If we get this passed through Congress, there won’t be any penalties whatsoever for all the folks who drove their companies into the ground with predatory lending practices and loan bundlings. It will be awesome - we’ll get the taxpayers to bail out the people who tricked them into buying mortgages they couldn’t afford!
(ALL sit in stunned, happy silence at the brilliance of PAULSON’s scheme. BUSH grins and walks over to PAULSON, who stands.)
BUSH (clapping PAULSON on the shoulder): Well, Paulie, you’ve really outdone yourself this time. Congratulations. I say, go for it! Go talk to Congress and see if we can get this thing through. What do you think, Dick?
(CHENEY has fallen asleep and is snoring again.)
BUSH: Well, heh-heh, anywho, go to it and report back to me when you’re done.
PAULSON (happily): Yessir, Mr. President, sir!
(LIGHTS OUT. END OF SCENE)
SCENE TWO: The Oval Office, the next day. BUSH is spinning in his chair, and CHENEY is snoring in his swivel chair.
A knock is heard at the door.
BUSH (stops spinning): Come in, Paulie!
(PAULSON enters, looking stunned.)
BUSH: What’s the matter, Paulie? They didn’t go for it?
PAULSON: Um, I’d say that’s an understatement, Mr. President. The Republicans hated it. The Democrats threw a bunch of crap in there, then still voted against it. And Americans, well, they don’t know what to think.
BUSH: Well, s**t. What do we do now?
PAULSON: Mr. President, I have no idea.
CHENEY (waking briefly): Oh, for Pete’s sake, you morons! Just take a couple of days off for the Jewish holidays, then come back with the same plan. The Democrats will cave eventually. They always do.
PAULSON (in awe): Wow, Mr. Vice President, you are absolutely right! Don’t you think, Mr. President?
BUSH: Well, hell yes! Dick, you’ve done it again. They are just putting on a show. As soon as they know we’re serious, they’ll fold like a cheap tent. It’s what they do.
CHENEY: And kickin’ ass is what we do. Right, gentlemen?
(ALL THREE chuckle manfully.)
(LIGHTS OUT.)
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Brendan Buschi
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| Joined: | Fri Apr 18th, 2008 |
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 04:00 am |
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Hello Fred, Hello Hartlyboy. My operation was all that I could have hoped for and the pathology report was excellent. The last blood test I had came back negative. So I am ever thankful.
I have been following the blogs but I was determined not to post again. When the market went below 10,000 I couldn't constrain myself. I'll probably fade away again.
Anyone who thinks that our government is going to resolve this mess is crazy. I hope I am wrong about how bad this will get, but the international news hasn't been particularly encouraging. I don't have faith in either party. The bailout clinched that for me.
Thank you for a friendly welcome. God bless us all.
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Hartlyboy
Member
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 02:14 am |
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Ah, Brendan me boy, good to hear from you again, though I was worried there for a while. It took you a bunch of paragraphs before you came up with your usual political message about Evil John and his cronies. It's not going to matter much which way you vote [except that you'll feel better about it] , the economy is going to have to fix itself. The bailout was to make you think the politicians were doing something useful and not doing a CYA act but the numbers aren't going to change much anytime soon. I do believe the Depression word is overblown in this meltdown, though. It will be probaly close to a year before the credit markets are functioning again as they were and then you'll see the developers and real esate agents and bankers back at it again, albeit with a tad more caution , but probably not much. Be sure to call them on it this time, eh?
I arrived at the end of the Great Depression and saw how it's effect shaped people who lived through it. I agree they didn't take it lightly. My mother and other relatives never threw anything away that might have a usable part or could be made to work a little longer. That might explain the condition of my shop and garage. I don't think we'll have the same stories to tell over this one, but it will sober people up about how greed and excess can bite you.
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Fred
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| Joined: | Mon Oct 10th, 2005 |
| Location: | Dover, Delaware USA |
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 01:13 am |
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First, welcome back...how is your health?
Second....I am a bit more optomistic. I think we are headed for a recession...perhaps the biggest one in 20 years, but certainly no where near the Great Depression. Things will balance out, as they always do.
Third...no point in being stupid, however. The next year or so are going to not be our best times. However, maybe we'll learn something from this experience. Don't spend what you don't have, and think before you leap....advice that the average household and the person in the White House would both be wise to follow.
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Brendan Buschi
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| Joined: | Fri Apr 18th, 2008 |
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Posted: Tue Oct 7th, 2008 12:07 am |
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When the Titanic first hit the iceberg, I doubt if anyone knew what was about to happen. The sad truth is that regardless of whether or not anyone knew what was about to happen, what happened was going to happen anyway.
Our economy has hit an iceberg. I doubt if anyone could tell you just when that happened. There have been many indications that something was wrong, but we have labeled them and interpreted them on the fly and we have been wrong in every instance. No one has called it for what it was; the hull has been breached and the ship is sinking.
We have all witnessed the symptoms of a major breach. We’ve seen banks fail. We’ve seen businesses close. We’ve seen jobs disappear. We’ve seen corporate misconduct and crime. We’ve seen the cost of everything increase. We’ve seen record foreclosures. We’ve seen the value of all investments, including real estate, drop.
I think we have looked at each one of these events as unrelated. We’ve relied on our political leaders too much. We’ve ignored the water rising in the hold and the fact that the ship is floating lower in the water. We’ve continued to buy on credit and amass debt.
Even when we were confronted with horrific acts such as those of Oklahoma City and 9/11, we chose to rely on the wisdom of our political leaders. Actually, we chose to be pacified by empty explanations and promises.
It would not be totally wrong to compare us to substance impaired passengers on this great sinking ship. We have certainly been consuming legal and illegal substances in record amounts. We have certainly been unaware of the repeated failures of all of the solutions that our leaders have come up with.
After 9/11, we allowed our leaders to take us into a disastrous war without due research and deliberation. Our Congress approved flawed legislation in virtually no time at all. Now, after hearing repeatedly that our economy was sound, our leaders have approved a gigantic funding bill within days of hearing that our economy wasn’t sound.
I seriously doubt that any member of Congress knew much more about what was happening than any one of us. Nevertheless, they approved giving almost $1,000,000,000,000 to Henry Paulson, our Secretary of the Treasury. It took them about a week to decide to do this. Imagine that? We still have no idea how he is going to use this money which we did not have to give in the first place.
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped below 10,000 for the first time in over 4 years. About a year ago it was over 14,000. This record loss can only be described as phenomenal.
Does anyone really think that any of our leaders have a clue as to what is happening? Does anyone really think that we have seen the end to this avalanche of economic woe? Does anyone believe that any of the money men (bankers, investors, stock brokers, etc.) know how to fix this?
I suggest that the water our ship is about to disappear into is very cold and dark. A lot of people are going to drown. Those who survive are not going to come out of this unscathed. I am too young to remember the Great Depression, but I was raised by people who lived through it. If there was one thing they all seemed to agree on it was that “debt” is evil.
The Great Depression did not simply end. The economic chaos we experienced here at that time was not contained on our continent. That economic chaos was shared then as it is now by the rest of the world. That economic chaos led to World War II.
I don’t have any answers for what is happening now. I don’t think anyone does. No matter how much I would like to believe that someone does, I don’t think anyone does. I fear these events will play out much the same as the events on the Titanic did after it hit the iceberg.
I will take some comfort in not voting for John McCain who said “the fundamentals of our economy are sound” less than 6 hours before admitting that we were in an economic meltdown. However, given the magnitude of the crisis, any comfort may be transitory at best.
I know that despite what anyone tells you, there comes a time to pay the piper. I fear we are all about to find out what that really means. Being submerged in cold, dark water can have a sobering effect. It would be sad and ironic if the first truly sober awareness most of us have is that of drowning.
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